PDI-P to win general election, says analyst<\/p>\n
A. Junaidi and Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Despite the smaller number of election contenders, the results of
\nthe upcoming polls in April 2004 will be more or less a repeat of
\n1999, which saw the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-
\nP) finish first, a political expert said.<\/p>\n
Ichlasul Amal, a professor of politics at Gadjah Mada
\nUniversity, said the decline in the number of contenders in the
\n2004 polls would not significantly affect the results as the
\nelectoral threshold had been increased from 2 percent in 1999 to
\n3 percent next year.<\/p>\n
"There were only six parties that met the electoral threshold
\nin the last election, and the outcome next year will not be very
\ndifferent," Amal told a seminar in Surabaya as quoted by Antara.<\/p>\n
He placed his bet on President Megawati's PDI-P as the party
\nthat would win the most votes next year as almost all contenders
\nwould maintain their core values to lure traditional voters.<\/p>\n
Although many supporters may have been disappointed with
\nMegawati's performance, Amal said, they would not abandon the
\nparty due emotional and traditional ties.<\/p>\n
"Both old political parties and new parties are still
\nexploiting people's fondness for nostalgia in their election
\ncampaigns. So the votes for old parties will not decline," Amal,
\nwho is also chairman of the National Press Council, said.<\/p>\n
PDI-P won 34 percent of the vote in 1999 to hand Golkar, the
\nruling party during former president Soeharto's three-decade
\nterm, its first ever defeat with 25 percent of the vote. But
\npolitical maneuvering cost PDI-P the presidency to benefit the
\nNational Awakening Party, which only finished fourth behind the
\nUnited Development Party.<\/p>\n
Another speaker, Daniel Sparringa, shared Amal's opinion,
\nsaying the next general election would still be marked by the
\nrivalry among four political ideologies: nationalist, Islam,
\nsocialist and mixed politics.<\/p>\n
"The parties will not build a coalition in the legislative
\nelection, but they will join forces in the presidential election
\nfor tactical reasons," Daniel of the Surabaya-based Airlangga
\nUniversity said.<\/p>\n
Indonesia will hold the legislative election on April. 5 while
\nthe presidential election will take place on July 5, with a
\npossible second phase on Sept. 20.<\/p>\n
Daniel predicted people would be more interested in the direct
\npresidential election rather than the election of House of
\nRepresentatives and the Regional Representatives Council members.<\/p>\n
"People are disappointed with the promises of politicians that
\nhave never been fulfilled. So they are just waiting for the
\npresidential election," he said.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, political observer Hermawan Sulistyo from the
\nIndonesian Institute of Science (LIPI) predicted the next
\nelections would see small but sporadic conflicts.<\/p>\n
He said there may be conflicts in several areas in the
\ncountry, including East Java, Central Java, Jakarta, North
\nSumatra and Lampung.<\/p>\n
In Jakarta another LIPI political analyst Indria Samego warned
\nof the return of the military to politics if the upcoming
\nelections failed to lead the country to democracy.<\/p>\n
"If no significant changes take place after the upcoming
\nelections, it might create chaos, which may open the door for the
\nmilitary to step in and take control."<\/p>\n
Indria said people still relied on the military due to their
\nability to manage an organization.<\/p>\n
A number of retired Army generals, including Wiranto, Try
\nSutrisno, Edi Sudrajat, Rudini, Wismoyo Arismunandar and R.
\nHartono are affiliated to a number of political parties for the
\nupcoming elections.<\/p>",
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