Paulo Gorjao Lecturer Lusiada University Portugal

It is obvious that Indonesia (together with Australia) will be the two countries that constitute the most important of East Timorese bilateral relations in the long term. However, in the short and medium term, diplomatic relations between Indonesia and East Timor may be disrupted owing to a lack of will to judge those responsible for the atrocities committed in East Timor during 1999.

Thus, the president, prime minister and foreign minister of East Timor must express their views with utmost caution. As far as the prime minister is concerned, this has not always happened in the past. Indeed, it is widely known that Mari Alkatiri has long held the strong belief that justice has to be done. He has said several times in public and in private that the Indonesian military, as well as the East Timorese prointegration militia, should be held accountable for their acts. Last month he stressed again that crimes against humanity had to be judged.

Yet, during his recent visit to Indonesia, his first official visit to this country, Alkatiri's message to President Megawati Soekarnoputri was slightly different. Rather than saying that he would like to see those responsible tried for the atrocities, he chose instead to emphasize that East Timor would not lobby for an international tribunal.

Furthermore, and also for the first time, he said, during an interview, that he supported the idea of an amnesty for those East Timorese already convicted of human rights violations. What is the explanation for this significant shift?

The answer is pure realpolitik. Geography leaves no other option for East Timor but to seek stable diplomatic relations with Indonesia. East Timor has land and sea borders with Indonesia and, therefore, it cannot avoid this fact. Indonesia can be a source of threats as well as of opportunities, and, in large measure, this depends on how East Timor manages its relations with Jakarta.

On the other hand, Indonesia is the natural ally to balance Australian influence in the territory. Again, geography dictates that East Timor is sandwiched between two great and powerful friends.

However, this is as true today as it was when Alkatiri became prime minister. Thus, his assurances that East Timor would not lobby for an international tribunal should have taken place a long time ago. President Xanana Gusmao, Alkatiri's greatest political rival, as well as Foreign Minister Ramos Horta, understood much earlier that seeking justice would only harm the relations between both countries. Indeed, the entire relationship would become hostage to a single issue.

Alkatiri's shift seems to mark a welcome (though late) reorientation of his priorities. Justice should not be seen as an absolute goal. The promotion of the economic well-being of the East Timorese is certainly more important, as the stability of democracy in East Timor depends on how well the system will perform in the coming years.

It was clear, at least since the beginning of 2001, that, regarding justice, significant distortions would occur. In March 2001, the New York Times quoted the complaints of East Timorese judge Maria Natercia Pereira about the lack of fairness of the judicial system, as they were only prosecuting the "small" East Timorese and not the "big" ones who had given the orders.

Horta expressed similar concerns and Gusmao emphasized that amnesty should take place sooner rather than later. Thus, Alkatiri's recent views expressed to the Portuguese news agency Lusa that a general amnesty was the only way to resolve the injustice of perpetrators of less serious crimes being imprisoned, while those responsible for major human rights violations remained free, is welcome, but quite belated.

Indeed, the East Timorese Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation should have been able to grant amnesties. In practice, it is meaningless and does not look for truth nor allow reconciliation. On justice and reconciliation, rather than looking forward, Alkatiri has been concerned only with the past. Until recently, he had been unable to free himself from his personal beliefs and had been hostage to those inside the government (and Fretilin) who did not wish to see Indonesia go unpunished.

Meanwhile, Gusmao continues to show him the path to follow in a wide range of issues. On June 16, in Lisbon, Gusmao gave a new lesson to Alkatiri about realpolitik and the promotion of stable relations between East Timor and Indonesia when he urged the international community to cancel Indonesia's debt.

This stance was certainly welcomed in Jakarta and will contribute to the consolidation of friendly relations between both countries. Obviously, East Timor has a deep interest in a stable and moderate Indonesia. East Timor's worst enemies in Indonesia are the nationalist radical forces that will prevail if it fails in the consolidation of democracy.

Assuming that the past teaches us something about the future, it will take several months before Alkatiri does the same thing and urges the international community to cancel Indonesia's debt. Unfortunately, thus far, and unlike Gusmao, Alkatiri has been following rather than leading fragile East Timorese public opinion. As prime minister, he still has to prove his mettle.

The writer was Visiting Fellow in November/December 2002 at the Australian Defense Studies Center.