Parliament Says Finance Ministry Options Must Be Implemented to Protect APBN Deficit
Budget adjustment options for the Free Nutritious Meal programme (MBG) and postponement of multi-year infrastructure spending have emerged as government measures to prevent widening of the 2026 state budget deficit (APBN), which could exceed the safe 3 per cent threshold if crude oil prices spike.
The proposal put forward by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has garnered various responses. Anis Byarwati, a member of Commission XI at the People’s Consultative Assembly (DPR RI), considers budget adjustment options rational, necessary to maintain fiscal discipline and APBN stability amid potential global pressure on energy prices.
“Our APBN deficit is indeed becoming increasingly concerning; the 2025 APBN deficit of 2.96 per cent alone is the highest since the post-reform era, excluding the pandemic,” she said in Jakarta on Monday, 9 March 2026.
Anis, who also serves on the Budget Commission (Banggar) of the DPR RI, analysed that rising budget deficits result not only from potential crude oil price increases caused by the Iran-Israel-America conflict. “But from the assumption that 2026 APBN tax revenue growth is set too high at 21.5 per cent, higher than the natural growth rate assumption of around 7.5 per cent, there is potential that state revenue will struggle to reach targets and the 2026 APBN deficit could exceed 3 per cent because tax revenue targets may be missed,” she said.
The PKS faction politician noted that the option of cutting the MBG programme is quite reasonable, given the programme’s budget size of Rp335 trillion, and that Fitch Ratings has also flagged the MBG programme as potentially constraining state spending and widening the fiscal deficit.
“Especially considering the government’s risk simulation (stress test) on the possibility of world crude oil prices reaching US$92 per barrel on average annually due to conflict escalation,” she said.
From her analysis, Anis Byarwati cautioned that the potential for APBN deficit widening, whether from internal or external factors, requires serious anticipation by the government. She also referenced assessments by international rating agencies such as Moody’s Investors Service, which previously highlighted Indonesia’s fiscal risks, and Fitch Ratings, which projects budget deficits could reach approximately 2.9 per cent in 2026, higher than the APBN target of 2.69 per cent.
The legislator from Jakarta I electoral district stressed that any policy option taken by the government must consider minimal impact on public economic conditions. She emphasised that fiscal adjustment measures should maintain public purchasing power, which has not yet fully recovered.
Anis further stated that policies raising administered prices such as fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and electricity tariffs could potentially suppress public purchasing power. Therefore, programme adjustments through cutting the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) budget and postponing multi-year infrastructure spending are considered more rational for maintaining fiscal stability without adding to public burden.