Only 4 Trading Days Left, But 8 Sentiment Bombs Could Shake Indonesia

Indonesia’s financial markets are forecast to remain volatile today, Monday (27/4/2026), and throughout this week. The main sentiments continue to stem from geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, US dollar movements, and the direction of global energy prices.

The JCI closed in freefall on Friday’s trading (24/4/2026). The index weakened by 3.38% or 249.49 points to the level of 7,129.49.

On Friday’s trading, pressure on the JCI was evident across a broad front. A total of 701 stocks weakened, with only 92 strengthening, while 166 other stocks remained unchanged.

The stock market transaction value was quite brisk, reaching Rp24.3 trillion involving 44.8 billion shares in 2.66 million transactions. Market capitalisation also fell to Rp12,736 trillion.

In line with the JCI’s weakening, foreign investors also recorded net selling across the entire market. Total foreign buying reached Rp3 trillion, while sales reached Rp5 trillion, resulting in foreign net selling exceeding Rp2 trillion.

Foreign selling pressure primarily hit large-cap stocks. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) became the stock with the largest net sell, amounting to Rp1.3 trillion. In addition, foreigners offloaded PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) by Rp287.5 billion and PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) by Rp192.4 billion.

Besides the banking sector, foreigners also sold off PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM), PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC), PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG), as well as energy stocks like PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) and PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (ADRO).

In contrast to the JCI, the rupiah managed to close last week’s final trading in the green zone.

This strengthening brought the rupiah back below the psychological level of Rp17,200/US.Previously, onThursday(23/4/2026), therupiahclosedweakeningby0.64. That level became the rupiah’s weakest closing position ever.

The rupiah’s strengthening also occurred amid external conditions that are not fully supportive. At 15:00 WIB, the US dollar index or DXY was still up 0.07% to 98.833.

Uncertainties in the region continue to maintain concerns over the world’s strategic shipping routes. Iran previously demonstrated control over that important route, so certainty on reopening the global shipping corridor remains a market focus.

This situation keeps energy prices at risk of staying high and weighing on global market sentiment. For Indonesia, pressure from energy prices and the strong US dollar becomes a sensitive combination for the rupiah and domestic financial markets.

Domestically, Bank Indonesia has affirmed it will continue to maintain rupiah stability through measured and consistent market operations.

“We will continue to carry out consistent interventions through Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) transactions in the offshore market, spot and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) transactions in the domestic market, accompanied by purchases of government bonds in the secondary market,” said Senior Deputy Governor of BI Destry Damayanti, quoted on Friday (24/4/2026).

Shifting to the bond market, the yield on 10-year government securities (SBN) closed flat at 6.715% on last week’s final trading.

The US stock exchange moved mixed on Friday’s trading (24/4/2026). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to hit record closing highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average still closed slightly weaker.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,165.08. The Nasdaq Composite, dominated by technology stocks, surged 1.63% to 24,836.60. Both also hit all-time intraday highs.

However, the gains were not uniform. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 79.61 points or 0.16% and closed at 49,230.71.

Over the past week, the performance of Wall Street’s three main indices also moved mixed. The S&P 500 strengthened around 0.6%, Nasdaq rose 1.5%, while Dow Jones weakened 0.4%.

The rise in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq came after investors received new hopes that peace talks between the US and Iran could resume.

An MS NOW report, citing Pakistani officials, mentioned that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday evening to discuss the possibility of a second round of negotiations with Pakistani mediation.

Hopes of reopening diplomatic channels have slightly eased pressure in the energy market. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell 1.51%, though still holding above US$94 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed slightly higher above US$105 per barrel.

Positive sentiment also came after US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three weeks. The agreement was announced after a meeting at the White House with senior US officials.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the meeting went very well. He also stated that the US would work with Lebanon to help the country protect itself from Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia group.

Nevertheless, the Middle East situation is not fully calm. Conflicts in the region have evolved into maritime tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Iran seized commercial ships from each other.

Trump even stated that he had ordered the US Navy to shoot any ship attempting to lay mines in the strait. This statement indicates that the risk of disruption in one of the world’s most vital energy routes remains.

However, the US stock market appears to be starting to view the conflict as a short-term risk. Robert Conzo, CEO of The Wealth Alliance, assessed that the market is beginning to set aside the conflict and refocus on US economic fundamentals.

According to Conzo, factors such as Trump’s signals on the conflict’s short duration, the historical nature of oil supply disruptions that are usually temporary, and the start of the earnings reporting season that is