OJK Survey Shows Indonesian Banks Remain Resilient Amid Global Political and Economic Turbulence
The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has assessed that the resilience of Indonesia’s banking sector remains preserved and is projected to remain solid in early 2026. This is reflected in the results of the OJK’s Banking Business Orientation Survey (SBPO) for Q1 2026, which demonstrates optimism among industry players regarding future banking performance.
Dian Ediana Rae, Head of Banking Supervision at OJK, stated that the survey results indicate relatively strong banking performance prospects despite global challenges. The survey was conducted in January 2026 and involved 93 participating banks, representing 94.17 per cent of total assets of commercial banks based on December 2025 data.
Confidence in banking industry performance is reflected in the Banking Business Orientation Index (IBP) for Q1 2026, which stood at 56, placing it in the optimistic zone. This optimism is driven by projections of banking business growth and confidence that banks remain capable of managing various risks emerging amid expectations of rising inflation and potential currency weakening.
On the other hand, projections of macroeconomic conditions show caution. The Index of Macroeconomic Condition Expectations (IKM) for Q1 2026 registered at 45, placing it in the pessimistic zone. The decline in this index is influenced by forecasts of rising inflation and currency depreciation.
Inflation pressure is estimated to be triggered by seasonal factors such as Ramadhan, Eid celebrations, and Lunar New Year, which typically drive increases in prices of goods and services. Additionally, there is a low base effect from the previous year, when the government provided electricity tariff discounts that no longer apply in the first quarter of this year.
The rupiah exchange rate is also estimated to face pressure due to increasing global geopolitical tensions. In the past week, geopolitical tensions escalated following an escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran after the United States, together with Israel, launched attacks on Tehran.
The impact has begun to be visible in Asian financial markets, which have experienced declines due to investor panic selling. Nevertheless, the prospect for the domestic economy is considered sufficiently strong. Indonesia’s economic growth is estimated to remain accelerating, particularly driven by increased consumer spending in the first quarter of this year.