OJK Survey: Banking Sector Performance Expected to Remain Solid Throughout Q1 2026
Jakarta — The results of the OJK’s Banking Business Orientation Survey (SBPO) indicate that banking performance is expected to remain solid with controlled risks, as reflected in the Banking Business Orientation Index (IBP) for the first quarter of 2026, which stands at 56 (optimistic zone).
This optimism is driven by projected growth in banking performance and confidence that banks will continue to be sufficiently capable of managing risks amid expectations of rising inflation and currency depreciation.
Dian Ediana Rae, Head of the OJK’s Banking Supervision Executive, noted in Jakarta on Monday that respondents held significant concerns about prolonged and potentially worsening global conditions and their implications for Indonesia’s economic performance.
“Although various banking indicators are currently in a resilient position, the banking sector still very much needs a vibrant business ecosystem to grow well,” Dian said.
Predictions of currency weakness and rising inflation pushed down the Macroeconomic Condition Expectation Index (IKM) for the first quarter of 2026 into the pessimistic zone, reaching 45.
Expectations of increased inflation are driven by seasonal factors such as Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr, and Lunar New Year celebrations, which typically increase prices for goods and services. Additionally, a low-base effect from the previous year—when electricity tariff discounts were applied—will not be repeated in the first quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, the exchange rate is expected to weaken amid continued high global geopolitical tensions. However, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to accelerate, driven by anticipated increases in consumer spending in the first quarter of 2026.
The majority of respondents believe that banking risks in the first quarter of 2026 can still be managed and controlled. This is reflected in the Risk Perception Index (IPR) of 57, which falls in the optimistic zone, supported by confidence that credit quality will remain solid, Net Foreign Exchange Position (PDN) remains at low levels with foreign currency assets and receivables exceeding foreign currency liabilities (long position).
Liquidity risk is also expected to remain controlled, driven by expectations that banking liquid assets and third-party funds (DPK) will continue to grow.
As projected DPK growth is expected to exceed projected credit disbursement growth, net cash flow in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to increase. Additionally, cash inflow is expected to rise as regional government funds begin to flow in during the first quarter of 2026.
Expectations for banking performance in the first quarter of 2026 also remain optimistic, with the Performance Expectation Index (IEK) at 67.
The manufacturing sector, which dominates banking credit disbursement, grew 6.60 per cent year-on-year in January 2026 and is projected to remain the primary driver of credit growth going forward.
From the perspective of fund-raising, respondents expect that in the first quarter of 2026, DPK will also grow in line with banks’ efforts to obtain funding sources to support credit growth and maintain liquidity.
For context, the SBPO was conducted in January 2026, involving 93 responding banks whose combined assets represent 94.17 per cent of total banking assets based on December 2025 data. During this survey period, the OJK also gathered information from respondents regarding the global and Indonesian economic outlook for 2026 and SME credit growth.
Global economic growth is projected to remain moderate, driven by high levels of uncertainty and global geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, most responding banks are optimistic that SME credit will grow in the first quarter of 2026, with an increasing proportion relative to total credit.