Oil Volatility, Rupiah Pressure, Investment Opportunities Emerge
Jakarta — Global geopolitical turmoil has once again shaken worldwide financial and energy markets. Tensions between the United States and Iran have driven crude oil prices higher while simultaneously pressuring developing country currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices briefly surged nearly to $120 per barrel, or approximately Rp 1.9 million per barrel (assuming an exchange rate of Rp 16,000 per US dollar). Prices subsequently retreated to the $85–90 per barrel range, or roughly Rp 1.36 million–Rp 1.44 million per barrel, following de-escalation signals from President Donald Trump.
“Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have prompted countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to reduce production due to full storage capacity. This condition creates operational pressure on global energy companies and unprecedented volatility in US oil producer stocks such as ExxonMobil and Chevron,” said analyst Reku Fahmi Almuttaqin in a press statement in Jakarta on Tuesday (10 March 2026).
On the domestic market, global pressures have affected the rupiah’s exchange rate. The Indonesian currency weakened to the Rp 16,935–16,970 per US dollar range, approaching its weakest level in recent years.
In the United States, several economic indicators are showing strain. February 2026 labour data recorded the loss of 92,000 jobs, well below market expectations. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 per cent.
US national debt has reached $38.43 trillion, or approximately Rp 614.88 quadrillion. These conditions have revived concerns about potential stagflation—an economic situation combining stagnation with high inflation.
Market pressure has also affected the private credit and global asset management sectors. Stocks of major investment firms including Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo have fallen more than 20 per cent throughout 2026. These declines have been driven by investor concerns over loan portfolio risks amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising US debt.
Bitcoin is currently trading in the $67,000–69,000 range, or approximately Rp 1.07 billion–Rp 1.10 billion per coin. This represents a level still about 46 per cent below its all-time high.
“Morgan Stanley’s appointment of BNY Mellon as custodian for crypto assets, along with major investments from NYSE owners in crypto exchanges, signals Bitcoin’s transition from a purely speculative instrument to an increasingly strategic component of global financial infrastructure,” said Fahmi.
He added that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq index remains quite high at approximately 85.4 per cent. Nevertheless, market conditions in the Extreme Fear zone have historically often been a momentum for long-term investors.
“When the Fear & Greed Index reaches Extreme Fear levels, history shows this is typically an accumulation zone for those with a long-term outlook,” Fahmi said. “This is not the time for panic selling.”