Oil Volatility Pressures Jakarta Composite Index as Rupiah Strengthens Slightly
Jakarta—The Indonesian composite stock index (IHSG) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) on Thursday 12 March 2026 faces the potential for weakness amid volatility in global crude oil prices as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify.
The IHSG opened stronger by 9.45 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 7,398.85. Meanwhile, the LQ45 index of 45 blue-chip stocks rose 1.34 points, or 0.18 per cent, to 753.58.
Liza Camelia Suryanata, head of research at Kiwoom Securities Indonesia, believes the IHSG’s upside potential is limited ahead of the extended Eid al-Fitr holiday next week. “Kiwoom Research sees the IHSG struggling to rise significantly ahead of the extended Eid al-Fitr holiday next week, so our best projection is for it to move sideways whilst maintaining critical support levels of 7,335–7,120 to avoid breaking below,” Liza said in her analysis in Jakarta on Thursday.
From external factors, crude oil prices have risen again despite the International Energy Agency (IEA) releasing the largest emergency reserves in history, totalling 400 million barrels, significantly more than the 182 million barrels released during the 2022 energy crisis.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices rose 7.95 per cent to $94.19 per barrel, whilst Brent prices climbed 8.01 per cent to $99.35 per barrel based on trading data at 09:35 WIB.
The oil price increase has been triggered by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz following attacks on vessels that threaten the global energy distribution route. Iran has even warned that oil prices could reach $200 per barrel if the conflict continues to intensify.
From the United States, February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 0.3 per cent month-on-month and 2.4 per cent year-on-year. However, this data does not yet reflect the latest energy price surge, leading markets to begin anticipating the potential for stricter monetary policy.
Meanwhile, domestically, Indonesia’s state budget deficit in February 2026 reached Rp135.7 trillion, or 0.53 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). This remains in line with the budget design as spending has been evenly accelerated throughout the year whilst state revenues remain positive and budget financing fell 33 per cent compared to the previous year.
Additionally, Commission XI of the Indonesian Parliament has selected Friderica Widyasari Dewi as chair of the Financial Services Authority (OJK) for the 2026–2031 period alongside four other members of the Board of Commissioners: Hernawan Bekti Sasongko, Hasan Fawzi, Dicky Kartikoyono and Adi Budiarso. This decision will be ratified during the plenary session of Parliament on 12 March 2026.
European stock exchanges closed weaker on Wednesday 11 March. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.70 per cent, the FTSE 100 in Britain fell 0.56 per cent, Germany’s DAX weakened 1.37 per cent, and the French CAC fell 0.19 per cent.
Meanwhile, US stock exchanges on Wall Street moved variably. The S&P 500 index fell 0.1 per cent to 6,775.17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6 per cent to 47,417.27, whilst the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1 per cent to 22,716.14.
Asian stock exchanges also moved variably on Thursday morning. The Nikkei index weakened by 821.29 points, or 1.49 per cent, to 54,204.10, the Shanghai index rose 4.20 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 4,137.54, the Hang Seng index fell 206.50 points, or 0.80 per cent, to 25,692.31, and the Straits Times index weakened by 15.33 points, or 0.32 per cent, to 4,848.50.