Oil Prices Surge, Rupiah Closes Under Pressure at 0.04 Per Cent Decline to Rp 16,893 per US Dollar

JAKARTA — The rupiah’s exchange rate in the spot market closed under pressure during trading on Thursday 12 March 2026. The rupiah weakened by 7 points or 0.04 per cent to Rp 16,893 per US dollar.

Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the weakening of the rupiah’s exchange rate was caused by a rise in global crude oil prices during Thursday’s trading. The price even briefly breached the psychological level of $100 per barrel.

This surge was triggered by media reports indicating that two international oil tankers were struck near Iraqi waters.

“Crude oil prices soared sharply on Thursday, temporarily rising above $100 per barrel, following media reports that two international oil tankers had been hit near Iraq,” said Ibrahim.

This route represents one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, as approximately one-fifth of global oil supply passes through the strait.

“Other reports show that Oman has evacuated its main oil export terminal, whilst Iran appears to be blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the main supply route for approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil,” he added.

The increase in oil prices immediately triggered market concerns about potential spikes in global inflation over the long term.

High energy prices have the potential to increase price pressures across various economic sectors, thereby fuelling speculation that global central banks could pursue more aggressive monetary policies in the coming months.

On the other hand, mixed signals regarding the Iran conflict have also caused commodity price movements, particularly metals, to fluctuate throughout the week.

From the perspective of economic data, the US consumer inflation report (CPI) for February released in line with market expectations provided only limited clarity on the direction of inflation ahead. The data has not fully alleviated investor concerns about potential higher price pressures, particularly if the energy price surge continues.

Consequently, market attention is now focused on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index scheduled for Friday. This indicator is the inflation benchmark most closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and will serve as an important reference in determining the direction of monetary policy and long-term inflation expectations.