Oil Prices Surge Amid Israel-Iran Conflict as Supply Disrupted

Jakarta – Global crude oil prices surged sharply at the beginning of the week amid heightened global geopolitical tensions. According to Refinitiv data on Monday, 2 March 2026 at 10:00 WIB, Brent crude oil was trading at US$76.43 per barrel, whilst WTI (West Texas Intermediate) stood at US$70.05 per barrel. This represented a significant increase compared to Friday’s 27 February 2026 close, when Brent was at US$72.48 per barrel and WTI at US$67.02 per barrel.

The sharp movement was triggered by market concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply as a result of conflict in the Middle East. Market participants are monitoring developments in the security situation, which is deemed to pose a risk of hampering energy distribution from the world’s major producing regions.

Attention is focused on strategic oil shipping routes in the Gulf region, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical points in global oil trade. This route carries the majority of oil shipments from major producing nations to Asian markets. Any disruption in this region immediately triggers concerns about supply shortages in the international market.

Uncertainty has prompted market participants to incorporate a higher risk premium into oil prices. This explains why prices have risen so rapidly in a short timeframe, even as underlying demand fundamentals have not changed significantly.

The market also anticipates that oil prices may remain elevated for several days ahead whilst the geopolitical situation shows no signs of abating. Should oil distribution remain disrupted, prices could move higher. Conversely, if tensions ease, prices have the potential to decline towards the US$70 per barrel range.