Oil Prices Strengthen, US Allies Doubtful: Beijing Sees New Opportunity

A surge in global oil prices amid supply disruptions from the Middle East has once again triggered new geopolitical pressures. This situation not only tightens the energy market but also shakes the confidence of United States (US) allies, while opening strategic opportunities for China to expand its influence. The world oil market is under pressure following disruptions to energy distribution routes in the Persian Gulf region. Asian benchmark oil prices such as Dubai and Oman spiked sharply, even breaking through levels above 160 US dollars per barrel at the end of March 2026. This oil price surge signals growing market concerns over the stability of global energy supplies. Market players are also closely monitoring movements in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, projected to fluctuate in the range of 75 US dollars to over 110 US dollars per barrel throughout April 2026. The US and Israeli military campaign in Iran, along with a strong response from Tehran, adds to the uncertainty in the region. Statements from US President Donald Trump, who frequently criticises Europe, are seen as weakening perceptions of US commitment to its allies. On several occasions, Trump has even called Europe a “paper tiger” and urged European countries to build “long-overdue courage,” go to the Strait of Hormuz, and “take it over.” Henrietta Levin from the Center for Strategic and International Studies assesses that this situation can be exploited by China. According to her, the weakening of US commitment to allies in Europe also directly impacts security stability in Asia. “US commitment to allies in Europe is directly related to deterrence in Asia, making the situation more vulnerable,” she said.