Oil Prices Soften But Global Pressures Remain Strong, Hopes for Indonesian Stock Market Resilience
Indonesia’s financial markets are estimated to face considerable pressure today, although the potential for a rebound remains possible due to poor performance in recent days.
The rupiah closed weaker against the US dollar on Monday, 9 March 2026. This development signals that hardline groups still hold strong control in Tehran, amid a conflict that has lasted for a week.
From the American stock market, Wall Street ultimately recovered during Monday or Tuesday trading (Indonesian time). The indices rose after President Donald Trump stated that the war against Iran might be approaching its end.
The S&P 500 rose 0.83% and closed at 6,795.99, whilst the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 239.25 points or 0.5% to 47,740.80. These leading stock indices had previously recorded their largest weekly decline in nearly a year.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.38% and closed at 22,695.95.
This movement represented quite a sharp reversal from the weakness that had occurred earlier that same day. At the session low, the Dow had dropped nearly 900 points, whilst the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell around 1.5%.
On Monday, Trump told a CBS News reporter that the war was essentially nearly finished. “They don’t have a navy, they don’t have communication, and they don’t have an air force,” Trump said, as cited by CNBC International. He added that the United States was now proceeding much faster than his initial estimate of a four-to-five-week conflict.
Trump also stated that ships are now transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic shipping lane, and he was considering taking control of it.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell to around US$81 per barrel following this development. Previously, during overnight trading, WTI had touched US$100 per barrel and even exceeded US$119—the highest level since 2022, when the market reacted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the international Brent benchmark fell back to around US$84 per barrel at its intraday low. US oil prices started this year below US$60 per barrel.
“It appears the situation is beginning to move in a better direction,” said John Luke Tyner, portfolio manager and head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors.
The overall stock market was also driven by gains in the semiconductor sector. Broadcom surged over 4%, whilst Micron Technology and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) each rose around 5%. Nvidia also strengthened by over 2%.
Oil prices had previously surged after major Middle Eastern producers cut production due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Kuwait announced production cuts but did not specify the magnitude, whilst Iraqi production was reported to have fallen around 70%.
Energy ministers from G7 nations—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—plan to hold a virtual meeting on Tuesday morning to discuss the possibility of releasing oil reserves. G7 finance ministers also met on Monday to discuss this measure, although no decision has been reached.
The US$100 per barrel oil price level is regarded by many Wall Street market participants as a critical threshold for the global economy, unless the conflict quickly subsides and prices fall again.
Trump wrote on Sunday evening that the short-term oil price increase was “a very small price” for neutralising the Iranian nuclear threat.
In response to the latest oil price surge, Tyner said the spike was not large or sustained enough to truly disrupt economic growth and corporate profits. “I imagine that as long as significant infrastructure is not damaged, oil prices will return to normal in the range of US$65 to US$75 per barrel, which represents a sufficiently ideal equilibrium point for all parties,” he continued.
The movement of global financial and commodity markets today is coloured by various releases of major macroeconomic data from the Asia-Pacific region, as well as geopolitical dynamics that have experienced sharp escalation.
Market participants are processing the implications of inflation recovery and record-breaking trade in China, growth challenges in Japan, and shifts in consumption expectations and trends amongst Indonesia’s population.
At the same time, the threat of an energy supply crisis due to Middle Eastern conflict has pushed crude oil prices beyond a new psychological level. This has triggered a series of strategic responses, ranging from US diplomatic evacuation measures, a US-China high-level meeting agenda, to preventive steps by the Indonesian government to maintain domestic energy supply stability.
Following is a breakdown of sentiment, economic data releases, and major news developments that are the market’s focus today:
Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index Adjusts
Domestically, Bank Indonesia reported that the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) fell to 125.2 in February 2026, from a record level of 127.0 in January. This decline reflects public caution regarding future macroeconomic conditions.
The Economic Expectations Index fell 4.4 points to 134.4. Public expectations of income over the next six months also weakened by 5.3 points, followed by employment availability expectations falling 3.4 points.
Despite the slightly corrected outlook for the future, public assessments of current conditions actually improved, marked by an increase in the current income level index of 1.4 points to 125.0.
China’s Consumer Inflation Hits Highest Level Since 2023
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a significant increase