Oil Prices Soar Again, Brent Surpasses US$103
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The global oil market is once again in turmoil. In Thursday morning trading at 10.10 WIB, oil prices continued their sharp rally amid deepening tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Refinitiv, Brent crude stood at US$103.93 per barrel, up from the previous close of US$101.91. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) strengthened to US$95.05 per barrel, from US$92.96.
This rise follows a more than 3% surge in prices the previous day. Brent closed Wednesday up US$1.85 or 1.82%, while WTI added US$1.91 or 2.05%. This indicates that the market is pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium into energy prices. In less than a week, Brent has risen from US$90.38 on 17 April to nearly US$104 this morning.
The root of the market’s anxiety lies in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that has long been the lifeline of global oil trade.
According to Reuters, Iran claims to have seized two container ships passing without permission. At the same time, tanker traffic in the area remains minimal as shipping companies deem the security situation too dangerous. When ships avoid the route, global supply is disrupted even if oil wells continue pumping.
The market also interprets that an extension of the ceasefire does not automatically mean oil exports will recover. During the ongoing war, exports from Middle Eastern Gulf producers have plummeted sharply, triggering the largest supply disruptions in modern history according to several market participants. Thus, even if bullets pause temporarily, the flow of barrels may not return to normal.
President Donald Trump previously extended the conflict pause after plans for a second round of peace talks with Iran in Pakistan failed to materialise. Washington states that the ceasefire remains in effect until Iranian leaders present a comprehensive proposal to end hostilities with the US and Israel.
While the threat of direct attacks is deferred, the risk of distribution disruptions remains real. The US military continues to maintain a naval blockade against Iran during the conflict pause. On the other hand, Tehran appears comfortable exerting its influence over the world’s most critical shipping lane.
Rapid Energy President Bob McNally told CNBC International that Iran’s leadership may be divided but is still functioning. In his view, Tehran feels it holds a stronger bargaining position and is prepared to hold out for months while waiting for oil prices to rise higher and global stock markets to weaken. Such assessments reinforce the perception that the crisis is not near its end.
Looking at the price charts, market sentiment is shifting rapidly. Brent was at US$98.48 on 21 April, rising to US$101.91 the next day, then breaking through US$103.93 this morning. WTI moved from US$92.13 to US$92.96 then to US$95.05. This consecutive rise illustrates a market beginning to accept the possibility of supply disruptions lasting longer than initial estimates.