Oil Prices Rise to US$104 as Global Supply Concerns Resurface
Global oil prices rose again at the start of trading this week. The market remains overshadowed by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the United States and Iran failed to reach the latest peace agreement proposed by Washington. The Strait of Hormuz route is still not fully open, keeping global energy supplies tight.
According to Refinitiv data as of Monday (11/5/2026) at 08:30 WIB, the Brent crude oil July contract (LCOc1) was recorded at US$104.59 per barrel, jumping 3.26% from the previous Friday’s close at US$101.29 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI/CLc1) rose 3.68% to US$98.93 per barrel from the previous US$95.42 per barrel.
This increase extends the extreme volatility that has occurred since the end of April. In the last two weeks, Brent soared to US$118.03 per barrel on 29 April before plummeting to around US$100 due to hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire. However, the rally broke again after the latest peace proposal failed to reach an agreement.
Reuters via Refinitiv reported that the latest negotiations between Washington and Tehran have not yet produced an agreement, while the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed. That route previously carried about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies before the conflict erupted at the end of February. The situation has led the market to recalculate the potential for global supply disruptions.
Previously, oil prices fell for three consecutive days last week after reports emerged that the US and Iran were getting closer to an agreement that could fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, that optimism evaporated after Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire, while Washington described the latest attacks as retaliation for Iran’s firing on a US Navy ship near the strait.
Iran’s military even claimed that the US attacks targeted an Iranian oil tanker and civilian areas. Although US President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire still holds, the latest exchanges of fire have once again panicked the market over risks to global energy distribution.
From a technical price perspective, Monday morning’s surge has seen Brent recover more than 4% from Friday’s position. However, its weekly volatility remains very wide. In the range from 28 April to 11 May, Brent moved from US$111.26 per barrel, briefly touching US$118.03, then falling to US$100 before surging back above US$104. A similar pattern occurred with WTI, which moved from US$99.93 to US$106.88, then dropped to the US$94 range before rebounding near US$99 per barrel.