Oil Prices Rise, Gold Weakens, Dollar Strengthens as Rupiah Faces Pressure Towards Rp 17,200
Jakarta — Movements in global commodity prices, from world gold and crude oil to the strengthening of the United States dollar index, are expected to place downward pressure on the rupiah exchange rate in the near term.
The rupiah has the potential to weaken, breaking through the psychological level of Rp 17,150-Rp 17,200 per US dollar.
Money market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that world gold prices on Friday morning (13 March 2026) closed at $5,021 per troy ounce based on spot market prices. Meanwhile, precious metal gold prices in the domestic market were in the range of Rp 2,997,000 per gramme.
According to him, should a correction occur, world gold prices are estimated to test the first support level at $4,973 per troy ounce, with precious metal prices at Rp 2,972,000 per gramme.
If a correction occurs and falls to a second support level of $4,922 per troy ounce, precious metal prices would be at Rp 2,920,000 per gramme.
Within the coming week, world gold prices could even potentially move towards the $5,158 per troy ounce level, with domestic precious metal prices estimated to breach the region of Rp 3.1 million per gramme.
However, Ibrahim assessed that heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not yet fully driven a significant increase in gold prices. This is because global market participants are shifting their attention to crude oil price movements and the strengthening of the US dollar index.
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East region, particularly concerning potential conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, has instead had more impact on increasing global energy prices.
Currently, world oil prices surged again at the end of trading this week. According to Reuters, Brent crude oil contracts for May delivery closed at $103.14 per barrel, up $2.68 or 2.67 per cent.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for April delivery also strengthened and closed at $98.71 per barrel, up $2.98 or 3.11 per cent compared to the previous trading session.
Subsequently, it became known that the tanker vessel was sailing from Oman and did not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This information drove oil prices higher again towards mid-trading on Friday. On a weekly basis, world oil prices also showed significant strengthening.
Brent prices have risen 11.27 per cent compared to the closing position on 6 March, whilst WTI prices increased by approximately 8 per cent compared to a week earlier.