Oil Prices Fluctuate as US-Iran Tensions Continue to Loom Over Global Energy Market
JAKARTA - Global oil prices moved fluctuatively at the start of this week, amid rising tensions between the United States (US) and Iran, alongside news of a temporary easing of Washington’s sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports.
Citing Reuters on Monday (23/3/2026), Brent crude oil rose 65 cents to $112.84 per barrel at 11:46 WIB. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose 84 cents to $98.75 per barrel.
Previously, both contracts had fallen more than $1 at the start of the trading session. The price differential between Brent and WTI, reaching more than $13 per barrel, also became the widest in several years.
Founder of Vanda Insights, Vandana Hari, said oil market sentiment will still be heavily influenced by geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East.
“Oil sentiment may fluctuate due to threats and rhetoric in the short term, but the more sustainable direction will remain determined by oil flow conditions from the Middle East,” she stated.
Those threats emerged just one day after Trump expressed a desire to end the war, which has now entered its fourth week.
In response to the threats, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Middle East could be “permanently destroyed” if Iran’s power plants are attacked.
Founder of Energy Aspects, Amrita Sen, assessed that this situation has the potential to trigger further escalation, which would drive up crude oil prices.
“Trump is trying to show that he can escalate further, and that direction could lead to the total destruction of energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.”
The ongoing war has damaged major energy facilities in the Gulf region and nearly halted shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route handling about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
Analysts estimate that these disruptions have caused oil production losses of 7 million to 10 million barrels per day in the Middle East.
In Iraq, the government declared force majeure for all oil fields developed by foreign companies. Production at the Basra Oil Company has even dropped drastically to 900,000 barrels per day from a previous 3.3 million barrels per day.
On the other hand, the temporary easing of US sanctions on Iran opens up additional opportunities for oil supply to the global market. Oil refineries in India are reportedly planning to resume purchasing Iranian oil, while other Asian countries are also beginning to consider similar steps.
Nevertheless, Vandana Hari assessed that the effectiveness of threats against Iran’s energy infrastructure remains questionable. With the series of conditions occurring, she detected a desire to end the hostilities, alongside an increasing focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
“It is unclear whether threats of attacks on Tehran’s energy infrastructure will be effective as long as Iran still has the capability to launch equivalent retaliatory strikes against neighbouring countries,” she said.