Oil Prices Fall Again, Down Nearly 7% This Week
Global oil prices weakened further on Friday (26/6/2026) as the market grew increasingly confident that supply disruptions from the Middle East would not be as severe as initially feared. The return of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to erode the geopolitical risk premium, even as security incidents near Oman still loom.
According to Refinitiv data as of 09.25 WIB, Brent crude oil was at US$74.48 per barrel, down 1.04% from the previous close of US$75.26 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.93% to US$71.25 per barrel from US$71.92 per barrel the day before.
The decline has been quite sharp over the past week. Since the close on 19 June, Brent has slumped around 7.6%, while WTI has dropped about 7%. This correction has wiped out almost all of the price surge previously triggered by rising tensions in the Middle East.
Market participants are now paying more attention to developments in oil shipping traffic than to the escalation of the conflict itself. Trade data shows that the volume of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose this week to its highest level since the United States-Israel conflict with Iran erupted last February. A ceasefire agreement reopened shipping lanes that had previously been disrupted, easing concerns about hampered global supply.
Nevertheless, the situation has not fully normalised. The number of vessels transiting remains well below the pre-conflict average of around 125 ships per day. This means that while shipping is beginning to recover, global oil distribution activity has not yet returned to pre-crisis conditions.
On the other hand, geopolitical risk continues to hang over the market. On Thursday, a cargo ship was reported hit by an unknown projectile near Omani waters. The incident briefly sent oil prices surging more than 2% after the United Nations maritime organisation temporarily suspended a voluntary evacuation scheme for vessels in the area.
Two United States officials said Iran fired shots at a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian authorities stated that the safety of ships sailing outside the official Hormuz route could not be guaranteed.
These conditions leave the market caught in a tug-of-war between two major sentiments. On one side, oil export routes are increasingly open, reducing supply fears. On the other, any new security incident around Hormuz still has the potential to revive the geopolitical risk premium if it hampers tanker traffic or forces producers to review plans to increase production.
Another sentiment came from Venezuela. An earthquake on Thursday raised concerns about the sustainability of the country’s oil production. Initial assessments showed that oil and gas facilities, refineries, pipeline networks, and export terminals suffered no significant damage as most were located far from the quake’s epicentre.
However, power supply disruptions have created uncertainty over whether production of around 1.2 million barrels per day can be maintained in the near term.
The market’s focus has now shifted from the threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure to how quickly oil shipping activity can return to normal. As long as tanker traffic continues to improve and no major new disruptions to global supply emerge, downward pressure on oil prices is likely to persist, although volatility remains high because the Middle East region still harbours unpredictable security risks.