Global oil prices weakened further on Friday (26\/6\/2026) as the\nmarket grew increasingly confident that supply disruptions from the\nMiddle East would not be as severe as initially feared. The return of\ntanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to erode the\ngeopolitical risk premium, even as security incidents near Oman still\nloom.<\/p>\n
According to Refinitiv data as of 09.25 WIB, Brent crude oil was at\nUS$74.48 per barrel, down 1.04% from the previous close of US$75.26 per\nbarrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.93% to\nUS$71.25 per barrel from US$71.92 per barrel the day before.<\/p>\n
The decline has been quite sharp over the past week. Since the close\non 19 June, Brent has slumped around 7.6%, while WTI has dropped about\n7%. This correction has wiped out almost all of the price surge\npreviously triggered by rising tensions in the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Market participants are now paying more attention to developments in\noil shipping traffic than to the escalation of the conflict itself.\nTrade data shows that the volume of oil shipments through the Strait of\nHormuz rose this week to its highest level since the United\nStates-Israel conflict with Iran erupted last February. A ceasefire\nagreement reopened shipping lanes that had previously been disrupted,\neasing concerns about hampered global supply.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, the situation has not fully normalised. The number of\nvessels transiting remains well below the pre-conflict average of around\n125 ships per day. This means that while shipping is beginning to\nrecover, global oil distribution activity has not yet returned to\npre-crisis conditions.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, geopolitical risk continues to hang over the\nmarket. On Thursday, a cargo ship was reported hit by an unknown\nprojectile near Omani waters. The incident briefly sent oil prices\nsurging more than 2% after the United Nations maritime organisation\ntemporarily suspended a voluntary evacuation scheme for vessels in the\narea.<\/p>\n
Two United States officials said Iran fired shots at a ship\ntransiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian authorities stated that\nthe safety of ships sailing outside the official Hormuz route could not\nbe guaranteed.<\/p>\n
These conditions leave the market caught in a tug-of-war between two\nmajor sentiments. On one side, oil export routes are increasingly open,\nreducing supply fears. On the other, any new security incident around\nHormuz still has the potential to revive the geopolitical risk premium\nif it hampers tanker traffic or forces producers to review plans to\nincrease production.<\/p>\n
Another sentiment came from Venezuela. An earthquake on Thursday\nraised concerns about the sustainability of the country\u2019s oil\nproduction. Initial assessments showed that oil and gas facilities,\nrefineries, pipeline networks, and export terminals suffered no\nsignificant damage as most were located far from the quake\u2019s\nepicentre.<\/p>\n
However, power supply disruptions have created uncertainty over\nwhether production of around 1.2 million barrels per day can be\nmaintained in the near term.<\/p>\n
The market\u2019s focus has now shifted from the threat of a Strait of\nHormuz closure to how quickly oil shipping activity can return to\nnormal. As long as tanker traffic continues to improve and no major new\ndisruptions to global supply emerge, downward pressure on oil prices is\nlikely to persist, although volatility remains high because the Middle\nEast region still harbours unpredictable security risks.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/oil-prices-fall-again-down-nearly-7-this-week-1782445892", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }