Oil Prices Could Exceed Rp2.5 Million per Barrel, World Faces Recession Threat!

Jakarta – BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has warned of a potential surge in global oil prices that could trigger a recession if they reach high levels and persist for an extended period. He stated that oil prices could rise to US$150 per barrel, equivalent to Rp2,535,000 (at an exchange rate of Rp16,900). According to him, such a level would have a major impact on the global economy. “We would experience a global recession,” Fink said, as quoted from Discovery Alert on Thursday, 26 March 2026. He added that this risk could last for the long term if geopolitical tensions do not ease. “Oil prices could stay above US$100 for years, approaching US$150, which would have major implications for the economy,” he stated. Historically, oil price surges exceeding 100 per cent of the five-year average have often been followed by recessions within 12 to 18 months. Similar conditions occurred during the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, as well as ahead of the 2008 financial crisis when oil prices hit US$147 per barrel. Rising oil prices have widespread impacts across various sectors. Transportation costs increase by around 2–3 per cent for every US$10 rise in oil prices, while manufacturing industries such as chemicals, plastics, and steel face higher production costs. On the other hand, consumers’ purchasing power is squeezed due to increased energy spending. The aviation sector is among the most affected, with fuel costs accounting for 25–35 per cent of total operations. Additionally, logistics and heavy industry sectors also face pressure from rising energy prices. The oil price surge is also triggered by distribution disruptions in strategic routes like the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply. Disruptions in this route increase shipping costs and tighten global supply. BlackRock’s analysis indicates that if oil prices remain above US$140 for more than six months, the likelihood of a global recession could increase significantly. The greatest impacts are expected to be felt by developing countries that depend on energy imports. Nations with high dependency risk currency weakening and pressure on their trade balances.