Oil Prices Could Breach 200 US Dollars per Barrel, State Budget Facing Potential Pressure
Jakarta, Indonesia — Global crude oil prices are estimated to surge to 200 US dollars per barrel should the conflict in the Middle East fail to find resolution within the coming month. Such a spike in energy prices would exert serious pressure on the global economy whilst directly impacting Indonesia’s economic stability.
In trading on Monday (9 March 2026) at 09:20 Western Indonesia Standard Time, Brent crude oil was trading at 113.68 US dollars per barrel, whilst West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at 113.25 US dollars per barrel. This increase extends an energy price rally that has persisted since late February of this year.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered surging global oil prices and turbulence in global financial markets. The effects are already becoming evident in Indonesia’s financial markets, where the weakening rupiah value is approaching Rp 17,000 per US dollar, and the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) experienced a sharp decline of nearly 5 per cent during Monday morning’s trading session.
“The weakening of the rupiah and the Composite Stock Price Index is considerable. The index has weakened by 5 per cent whilst the rupiah has moved towards Rp 17,000,” Assuaibi told journalists on Monday.
At this level, the government is considered to still have room to implement various anticipatory measures, both through adjustments to subsidy policy and management of the energy budget allocation.
“From an internal perspective, we know that the government has already explained that over the next 20 days, fuel prices will remain relatively stable. However, should prices exceed 92 US dollars per barrel — which represents the most normal price level — the government can still take anticipatory measures,” he explained.
Should oil prices remain elevated, pressure on the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) will intensify significantly. In such circumstances, potential budget deficit expansion is predicted to reach 3.6 per cent, particularly if the government continues to maintain domestic fuel price stability.
This situation represents one of the factors heightening market concerns regarding fiscal stability amid soaring global energy prices.
“However, we observe that today crude oil and Brent crude oil prices are above 100 US dollars, at 117 US dollars. What does this mean? That the government will most likely experience a budget deficit of 3.6 per cent,” Assuaibi noted.