Oil Prices Break Highest Level Since 2022
Global oil prices surged sharply, reaching the highest level since 2022 amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude oil futures briefly broke through US$120.94 per barrel on Thursday, 30 April 2026. At the close of trading on the same day, oil prices fell back to US$113 per barrel.
Citing the Trading Economics website, this increase was triggered by the heating up of the conflict involving the United States and Iran, including plans for military deployment by US President Donald Trump in response to Iran. This situation has heightened market concerns about disruptions to global supply, especially after the US was reported to be maintaining a naval blockade against Iran.
From a fundamental perspective, price pressure also came from a sharp decline in US oil stocks and a surge in exports exceeding 6 million barrels per day. “This condition indicates that global supply is becoming increasingly tight amid energy distribution disruptions,” wrote Trading Economics on Thursday, 30 April 2026.
Domestically, the surge in global oil prices is reflected in the rise of the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP). Previously, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) recorded the March 2026 ICP at US$102.26 per barrel. This price is the highest in the last year and far above the 2026 state budget assumption of US$70 per barrel.
The Director General of Oil and Gas at ESDM, Laode Sulaeman, stated that the average ICP rose significantly by US$33.47 compared to February 2026, which was at US$68.79 per barrel.
According to him, the price surge is inseparable from the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which also disrupts global energy distribution routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route that carries around 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.
This oil price surge is placing significant pressure on the state budget. Secretary of the Coordinating Ministry for the Economy, Susiwijono Moegiarso, stated that every US$1 increase per barrel could add to the burden of energy subsidies and compensation by up to Rp10.3 trillion.
Economist from Gadjah Mada University, Fahmy Radhi, assessed that this situation places the government in a dilemmatic position. If subsidised fuel prices are held, the state budget burden will swell. Conversely, if prices are raised, inflation risks will increase. “Because the largest fuel consumption is for Pertalite and diesel, this becomes a difficult choice for the government,” he said.