Oil Prices Breach USD 100 per Barrel within 10 Days of Iran Conflict, Faster than 2022 Ukraine War
JAKARTA — Global crude oil prices surged sharply following the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States on the final days of February 2026. The rate of price increase proved even faster than the oil price spike during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Research institute CORE Indonesia reported that global crude oil prices breached the USD 100 per barrel mark in approximately 10 days following the outbreak of the Iran conflict on 28 February 2026. By contrast, during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, crude oil required more than a month to reach the same level.
“The oil price surge resulting from the Iran war has accelerated far more rapidly compared to when Russia attacked Ukraine,” stated CORE Indonesia in its March 2026 CORE Insight report.
According to CORE Indonesia, the price increase was triggered by a surge in conflict following military operations involving the United States and Israel targeting Tehran on 28 February 2026.
The increase persisted over subsequent days. On 8-9 March 2026, WTI and Brent oil prices reached approximately USD 110 and USD 119 per barrel respectively. These figures were considerably higher than global crude oil prices when Israel attacked Iran for 12 weeks during 13-24 June 2025.
“During that period, average oil prices reached only USD 76 per barrel,” noted CORE Indonesia.
The Strait of Hormuz, situated between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, represents a strategically critical global energy trade route. Approximately one-quarter of global crude oil consumption passes through this strait.
Under normal circumstances, approximately 50 to 60 oil and gas tanker vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz daily. However, following the outbreak of conflict, traffic collapsed sharply to only 2 to 5 vessels per day.
The halt in tanker operations resulted from responses by shipping companies suspending oil shipments due to security concerns. Insurance companies also became reluctant to cover potential damage costs should vessels attempt passage amid the conflict. Meanwhile, Tehran signalled it would not grant access for tanker vessels to transit through the region.
Although prices experienced temporary correction when United States President Donald Trump indicated military operations were nearing completion, crude oil prices remained substantially above pre-war levels, which had hovered around USD 70 per barrel.
By 11 March 2026, WTI oil was recorded at approximately USD 85 per barrel, whilst Brent stood at USD 90 per barrel. These figures represented declines of approximately 25 per cent and 29 per cent respectively compared with peak prices on 9 March 2026.
However, this correction proved short-lived. On 12 March 2026, oil prices surged again to USD 101 per barrel for Brent and USD 95 per barrel for WTI.
“Nevertheless, this oil price increase will only be temporary in nature. It will subside as tensions ease, and will rise again should political signals heat up once more,” stated CORE Indonesia.