Oil Prices Begin to Cool, But New Threats Loom
Jakarta — Global crude oil prices remain highly volatile but are beginning to stabilise. However, the death of Iranian official Ali Larijani is feared to spark fresh turmoil and further elevate oil prices.
According to Refinitiv data, on Thursday 18 March 2026 at 08:38 WIB, Brent crude fell 0.82% to $102.57 per barrel, whilst WTI dropped 1.32% to $94.94 per barrel.
Today’s oil price decline contrasts with Wednesday’s trading. At the close of trading on Wednesday 17 March 2026, Brent crude surged 3.2% to $103.42 per barrel, whilst WTI oil jumped 2.9% to $96.21 per barrel.
Despite weakening, crude oil prices remain at elevated levels and continue moving in positive territory as the Middle East conflict persists.
Iran’s state media reported that Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and a key figure in Iran’s wartime leadership, has died.
Iran’s confirmation of the death of this important national security figure has heightened market concerns.
The death comes as United States President Donald Trump seeks to reopen trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US leader previously requested allies to deploy warships to secure the waterway, which typically carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. However, the request was subsequently withdrawn after failing to secure sufficient support.
“Larijani’s killing is highly significant and could strengthen Iran’s resolve to disrupt oil shipments,” said Aaron Stein, President of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, as quoted by Reuters.
“Clearly Trump is under pressure to escort tankers, so we may face more tense US operations, something the US Navy likely wishes to avoid,” he added.
US crude oil prices have surged more than 60% so far this year, particularly following the initial attack on Iran by the United States and Israel on 28 February 2026.
Tehran’s retaliatory strikes against energy infrastructure and disruptions to tanker traffic have driven prices higher and sparked inflation concerns.
This week Iran has also escalated attacks in the region, including heavier strikes on Saudi Arabia. Most attacks have focused on the kingdom’s eastern province, where vital oil infrastructure is located.
With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the Saudi government is accelerating efforts to channel oil through cross-border pipelines to alternative ports on the Red Sea.
The oil market continues to monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains blocked.
Current shipping traffic conditions are influenced by political considerations, with Iran likely only permitting certain vessels to transit based on political relationships, whilst other ships face restrictions or even blockades.
“We have not seen signs the conflict will end. With increasing production disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut, we anticipate Brent prices will hold in the $95–$110 per barrel range,” said Robert Rennie, Head of Commodities Research at Westpac.
“Should major refineries come under attack or if additional mines are confirmed in the strait, prices could rise a further $10–$20 per barrel,” he added.