Oil Price Surge Again, World Awaits Two Critical Updates from America
According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah closed trading in negative territory with a depreciation of 0.12% to the level of Rp16,885/US.Pressureontherupiahhadbeenevidentsincethestartoftrading, whentheGarudacurrencyopened0.15.
Wall Street collapsed en masse during Thursday’s trading or early Friday morning Jakarta time.
Stocks came under pressure as crude oil prices continued their surge amid concerns about supply disruptions, whilst the Iran conflict remains ongoing.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 739.42 points or 1.56% and closed at 46,677.85. The S&P 500 weakened 1.52% to 6,672.62, whilst the Nasdaq Composite plummeted 1.78% and ended at 22,311.98.
All three indices recorded their lowest closings throughout 2026, and the Dow—comprising 30 stocks—even closed below the 47,000 level for the first time this year.
Crude oil prices continued rising after Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed on 9 March, stated that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a tool to pressure enemies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts rose 9.72% and closed at US$95.73 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent surged 9.22% and closed at US$100.46 per barrel, marking the first close above US$100 since August 2022.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US Navy is not yet prepared to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, although he estimates that capability could be ready by the end of this month.
Vessel traffic in the region has almost come to a complete halt as conflict in the Middle East intensifies.
On the previous evening, three additional foreign vessels were attacked in the Persian Gulf, according to local authorities. This incident occurred after three other vessels, including one in the Strait of Hormuz, were also attacked on Wednesday.
US forces on Tuesday sank 16 Iranian vessels that were laying naval mines near the strait. Insurance company Chubb was also announced as the primary guarantor in a US government-led programme to provide insurance for vessels attempting to navigate this strategic waterway.
“Iran has successfully executed its strategy of creating economic chaos in the Gulf as tankers are attacked and Hormuz remains closed, thus pushing Brent crude towards US$100,” said Adam Crisafulli from Vital Knowledge in a note.
“The United States and Israel do possess military dominance and Iran’s missile and nuclear programme may have weakened, but Tehran’s hardline government remains strong. Their strategy now appears to be leveraging oil to push Trump to seek a way out of this conflict,” he added.
To help ease energy costs, Wright stated on Wednesday evening that the US would release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This oil distribution process is estimated to take approximately 120 days.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday also agreed to a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil to address supply disruptions caused by the conflict. However, crude oil prices remained elevated in the previous session due to concerns that the conflict could last a long time.
President Donald Trump had previously stated early this week that the war would end very soon, which had temporarily eased the surge in oil prices after they had briefly breached US$100 per barrel.
“If energy costs and petrol prices remain at current levels or even rise due to developments in the Middle East, this could dampen consumer sentiment and make the cost-of-living affordability issue a primary concern ahead of the midterm elections,” said Anthony Saglimbene, head of market strategy at Ameriprise.
However, overall consumer financial balance sheets remain in solid condition, income and employment conditions are still strong, and inflation continues to ease in several important sectors, particularly housing.
“As time goes on, if inflation continues to decline (aside from temporary energy impacts) and markets and the economy remain strong, American public sentiment about their ability to finance daily living expenses could improve,” he added.
Despite the ongoing conflict, the S&P 500’s decline is relatively limited with the benchmark index down only slightly more than 4% from the record high reached in January.
Eight out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 weakened on Thursday, with banking and technology stocks in negative territory.
Morgan Stanley shares led the financial sector’s decline after restricting withdrawals from its private credit fund.
Conversely, energy stocks, including Chevron and ExxonMobil, were among sectors remaining in positive territory.
As trading opened today, market participants need to closely monitor a series of macroeconomic data releases from the United States, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and new directions from domestic capital market regulators.
The US will announce two important pieces of data today: consumer spending inflation or PCE and employment data.
The following are details of current market developments with implications for market movement today:
US PCE Inflation
Tonight there will be a release of US PCE and Core PCE data for January 2026. It should be noted that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell prefers to use PCE as the benchmark for inflation figures because it is more modern in its methodology for sampling inflation data.
Based on data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for the United States recorded an increase of 2.9% on an annual basis in December 2025.
This figure increased slightly compared to November, which was at the 2.8% level, and was above the market consensus projection of 2.8%. This inflation increase was primarily driven by a 1.7% rise in goods prices and a 3.4% surge in service costs.
Meanwhile, core inflation (Core PCE), which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is expected to show continued momentum.