Oil Price at US$100 Until Year-End, 2026 State Budget Will Not Falter

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has assured that the state revenue and expenditure budget (APBN) deficit throughout this year will remain secure, despite fluctuations in oil prices exceeding the 2026 APBN macroeconomic assumptions.

He stated that even if the global crude oil price holds at an average of US$100 per barrel until the end of the year or above the APBN assumption of US$70 per barrel, the government will still be able to keep the 2026 APBN from faltering, meaning no widening of the deficit beyond the safe limit of 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

“Our calculations show that even at US$100 per barrel on average for a full year, our budget will remain sustainable and the deficit will still be controlled,” Purbaya emphasised during an online press conference on Government Policy in Mitigating Risks and Anticipating Global Dynamics, quoted on Wednesday (1/4/2026).

Therefore, he assured all parties that the government will take mitigation steps to secure the fiscal position. The government, he said, has calculated all risks and the anticipatory measures that will be taken to respond to them.

“So there is no need to worry about the budget becoming erratic; we have calculated through to the end of the year,” Purbaya explained.

“We always maintain budget sustainability and even with that, we have room for a cushion against economic fluctuations,” he stressed.

As is known, global oil prices remain at high levels in Tuesday’s (31/3/2026) morning trading, amid escalating conflicts heating up in the Middle East.

At 09.40 WIB, the Brent crude price was recorded at US$112.32 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at US$102.53 per barrel, citing Refinitiv data.

Amid these conditions, Pertamina through Pertamina Patra Niaga has affirmed that there will be no changes to fuel oil (BBM) prices, either non-subsidised or subsidised, on 1 April 2026. This is in accordance with the government’s policy directive not to adjust prices.