Numerous Important Announcements, IHSG Opens in the Red Zone

The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) began trading in the red zone this morning, on Monday (4 May 2026).

The IHSG fell slightly by 3.38 points or 0.05% to the level of 6,968.56. There were 209 stocks in the green, 88 down, and 318 unchanged.

The transaction value reached Rp144 billion, involving 606 million shares in 38,199 transactions. Market capitalisation was recorded at Rp12,440 trillion.

A few minutes after the market opened, the IHSG was recorded as falling deeper to 0.71%. The most actively traded stocks included BBCA, BRPT, and BBRI.

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to face significant pressure today. The renewed intensification of war and rising oil prices could pressure the IHSG and the rupiah. The collapse of Wall Street could also serve as a danger alarm.

However, data on strengthening economic growth and easing inflation is hoped to curb market volatility. The government and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) will also hold two press conferences today.

The previously fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be on the brink of collapse on Monday, when the United Arab Emirates was attacked by Iranian drones and missiles, while the US stated it had sunk Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News on Monday, warned Iran that the country would be “wiped off the face of the earth” if it targeted US ships protecting merchant vessels transiting the strait.

Trump also stated in a post on Truth Social that a South Korean cargo ship had been targeted by Iranian gunfire in those waters. “Perhaps it’s time for South Korea to join this mission!” he wrote.

Stock market indices closed sharply lower on Monday, while oil prices rose, as investor concerns grew that the impact of the war on the global economy could worsen or last longer.

Domestically, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded Indonesia’s trade balance in March 2026 with a surplus of US$3.32 billion. This surplus is US$3.32 billion compared to the February 2026 figure of US$1.27 billion.

The surplus condition was due to exports valued at US$22.53 billion, down 3.10% from the same period last year, while imports were US$19.21 billion, up 1.51%. As a note, this is the surplus for 71 consecutive months since May 2020.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s manufacturing activity is increasingly eroded by the impact of the war, experiencing contraction. Data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by S&P Global on Monday (4 May 2026) shows Indonesia’s PMI at 49.1 in April 2026.

This figure is the lowest since July 2025 or the last nine months. This also marks the first PMI contraction since July 2025 after eight months of expansion.

The PMI uses 50 as the starting point. If above 50, it means the business world is in an expansion phase. Meanwhile, below that means contraction.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) today will announce first-quarter 2026 economic growth data on Tuesday (5 May 2026). This data is very important in assessing the resilience of the country’s economy against global shocks in the early year.

Economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to remain high due to the impact of Eid al-Fitr and Ramadan as well as the long holiday.

As a note, Ramadan is the peak consumption period in Indonesia. In the first quarter of 2025, Indonesia’s economy grew 4.87% year-on-year (yoy), slowing from the same period the previous year and recording a 0.98% contraction compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 (q-to-q).

Based on the consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 12 institutions, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to reach 5.40% annually (year-on-year/yoy). However, on a quarterly basis, the economy is projected to contract by 1.0% compared to the previous quarter (quarter-to-quarter/qtq).

If it matches the projection, then first-quarter 2026 economic growth would be the highest since the third quarter of 2022 (5.73%) and also the largest in the era of President Prabowo Subianto.

Today, Finance Minister Purbaya Sadewa will hold a press conference on the APBN KiTa edition for May 2026. The press conference will reveal developments in the state budget up to April 2026. It will be interesting to see how far the government’s revenue and expenditure achievements are.

The public is also awaiting whether Purbaya will announce new policies to mitigate the impact of the war.

Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto will also hold a press conference responding to first-quarter 2026 economic growth data together with related ministers.

It will be interesting to see whether the government will provide new stimulus or give the latest response regarding the surging oil prices.

Then, the OJK will also hold a monthly conference today and reveal the latest developments in the financial industry, including banking credit developments to insurance.

The OJK is expected to provide a more complete explanation regarding important future agendas, such as the MSCI overhaul and developments in reforms at the Indonesia Stock Exchange that have been carried out.