Not Subsidies: Vietnam Uses Fish to Stabilise Fuel Prices

The global surge in crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have significantly driven up international logistics costs across countries worldwide. Facing this heavy pressure, Vietnam’s fishing industry is implementing supply chain adjustment strategies, positioning tilapia as the primary buffer to maintain the stability of their fisheries export performance amid the impact of high sea freight costs. This tactical response ensures the competitiveness of products remains intact amid energy market uncertainties. Vietnam’s tilapia exports are currently entering a phase of massive growth. Amid high logistics cost structures, the strategies of the government and business players are shifting to prioritise destination markets with the advantages of short-distance routes to minimise the fuel burden on sea fleets. In 2025, the value of exports for this commodity reached US$99 million, soaring more than 140% annually. In Q1 2026, the export value hit US$35 million, jumping nearly 190% due to the high surge in demand for white meat fish alternatives in various countries. Mitigation of Logistics Costs and Route Efficiency Vietnam’s historical dependence on long-distance export markets crossing the Pacific Ocean, such as the United States and Brazil, is now being mitigated in a measured manner. The high fuel prices for logistics fleets directly burden profit margins on intercontinental shipping routes. Currently, shipments to the US market continue to show a clear downward trend. On the other hand, Brazil, which still absorbs nearly half of total exports in early 2026, also holds long-term competition risks, given that the country is aggressively investing in mastering tilapia aquaculture technology for its internal needs. To anticipate the risks of expensive intercontinental transportation costs, Vietnamese exporters are redirecting distribution channels. Industry players are massively implementing a dual-route strategy, deemed far more efficient in terms of logistics calculations. This strategy is carried out by maximising penetration into regional markets through the utilisation of free trade agreements, as well as strengthening absorption in the domestic market, which is currently inhabited by more than 100 million people. This tactical step has proven highly effective in drastically reducing operational costs, as directly reflected in the surge of export values to the ASEAN regional area, which grew to reach 400%. Secure Sales Targets and Industry Expansion Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development now projects tilapia as the third strategic pillar in the national fisheries sector, accompanying other main commodities such as shrimp and pangasius. By managing around 1.3 million hectares of potential water areas, the local government continues to accelerate the adoption of large-scale industrial aquaculture technology and mandates the implementation of international quality standards such as VietGAP and GlobalGAP certifications. Global demand for tilapia itself is projected to continue growing consistently at around 13% per year, reaching US$20 billion by 2030. Through adaptive strategies that position tilapia as a shield against global energy price fluctuations, the Vietnamese government is very optimistic that this momentum can maintain industry stability. Ultimately, this logistics manoeuvre is expected to secure the national fisheries export target of US$14 billion to US$16 billion by the end of this decade.