Not Rp12,300/Litre, The Actual Economic Price of Pertamax Fuel is This
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The price of non-subsidised fuel oil (BBM) type Pertamax (RON 92), currently held at Rp12,300 per litre, is still below its economic price.
Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) Bhima Yudhistira estimates that the economic price for non-subsidised BBM Pertamax is at the level of Rp18,740 per litre. Meanwhile, for Pertamina Dex, it is estimated to reach Rp25,560 per litre.
Thus, there is a significant gap between the selling price and the economic price. For Pertamax, the difference is around Rp6,440 per litre, while for Pertamina Dex, it reaches Rp11,060 per litre.
“The economic price of non-subsidised BBM is at Rp18,740 per litre for RON 92. Meanwhile, Pertamina Dex is at Rp25,560 per litre. The difference means the government bears compensation for RON 92 of Rp6,440 per litre and for Dex Rp11,060 per litre,” said Bhima to CNBC Indonesia on Thursday (2/3/2026).
Bhima assesses that this gap ultimately has the potential to enter the government’s compensation scheme. This situation risks adding pressure to the state revenue and expenditure budget (APBN).
“Purbaya said the energy subsidy is swelling by Rp100 trillion, but adding compensation for non-subsidised BBM, the need (for subsidies) is estimated to be above Rp130-150 trillion,” he said.
Separately, economist from the Center of Reform on Economic (CORE) Indonesia Yusuf Rendy Manilet explained that the economic price of Pertamax BBM truly depends on two main factors, namely global oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar.
According to him, with world oil prices still around US$80-90 per barrel, and the rupiah exchange rate above Rp15,500 per US dollar, the current economic price of Pertamax is estimated to be in the range of Rp14,500 to Rp15,500 per litre.
“With the current conditions where oil prices are still relatively high at around 80-90 US dollars per barrel and the rupiah above Rp15,500, roughly the economic price of Pertamax is in the range of Rp14,500 to Rp15,500 per litre,” said Yusuf.
Meanwhile, the selling price of Pertamina (Persero) PT’s Pertamax BBM product is still priced at Rp12,300 per litre. This means there is a difference of around Rp2,200 to Rp3,200 per litre compared to its economic price.
According to him, this gap essentially does not disappear but shifts to become a burden. In the short term, it is usually borne by the business entity.
“In this case, Pertamina’s margin is under pressure, and if the gap widens or persists for a long time, it ultimately has the potential to enter as a fiscal burden through a compensation scheme,” he said.
He explained that this is where the policy dilemma lies, where holding prices does help maintain purchasing power and contain inflation, especially amid global uncertainties, but if it lasts too long, the risks will start to accumulate.
Not only Pertamina, but several private fuel station operators, such as BP-AKR and PT Vivo Energy Indonesia, are also holding non-subsidised BBM selling prices until 2 April 2026. Normally, non-subsidised BBM prices are adjusted on the 1st of each month, taking into account fluctuations in oil prices, exchange rates, and the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS).
For example, private business entities like BP, for BP 92, are still observed to be held at Rp12,390 per litre, the same as the March 2026 period. Similarly, Vivo’s BBM product, Revvo 92, is still maintained at Rp12,390 per litre.