Not a Typical Cycle: 'Time Bomb' Super El Nino Set to Disrupt Global Climate
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, COLORADO – Scientists predict that this year’s El Nino will be one of the strongest since satellite records began in 1982. Climate scientists from the University of Colorado Boulder are observing temperature phenomena in the Pacific Ocean.
The observation was made after the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a report predicting the possible emergence of a ‘Super El Nino’ pattern in mid-to-late 2026.
Although the term ‘Super El Nino’ is not an official technical term in meteorological literature, this phenomenon refers to an El Nino event with extreme strength that can significantly disrupt global weather patterns, ranging from severe droughts in Southeast Asia to floods in the US.
After being in the La Nina phase for the past few months, the Earth is currently in a neutral ENSO condition. However, satellite data shows that heat is starting to accumulate beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a natural fluctuation in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that has a ripple effect on global atmospheric circulation.
Kris Karnauskas, a lecturer in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, explained that ENSO has a unique ability to ‘dictate’ weather over long periods.
‘ENSO tries to lock us into weather patterns that last for several months. It all starts in the ocean and then creates a kind of ripple effect on the weather around the world,’ said Karnauskas, as quoted from the official website of the University of Colorado Boulder, Friday (15/5/2026).
Although global, El Nino is not a uniform phenomenon. Karnauskas emphasised that its impact is very regional and varies in each geographical location.
In the US, for example, El Nino usually brings warmer temperatures in the west. The southwestern region tends to experience a significant increase in rainfall, while the northeastern region faces much drier conditions.
‘This is not a globally consistent effect. Its characteristics depend very much on the region,’ he added.
Predictions from various climate models have sparked speculation in the media, including reports that this El Nino could be the strongest in the last century. Previously, it was reported that the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a serious warning about the emergence of an El Nino phenomenon that is developing much faster than initially expected.
The latest data released in May 2026 indicates a high probability of a ‘Super El Nino’ which is predicted to peak at the end of the year to early 2027.