No easy fixes for Arroyo or any Philippine leader, say analysts

No easy fixes for Arroyo or any Philippine leader, say analysts

John O'Callaghan, Reuters, Manila

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is ascendant going into
Monday's elections in the Philippines but old millstones of debt,
graft, poverty and division await her, or any other leader, from
the first day in office.

Financial markets have taken heart from four surveys showing
Arroyo pushing past macho film star and political novice Fernando
Poe Jr. in the home stretch of the 90-day campaign.

While the "familiarity factor" is Arroyo's main attraction,
investors will quickly refocus on the health of debt levels, tax
collection, exports and the peso, said Mike Moran, regional
economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.

"Her track record on the economic side over the past few years
hasn't been particularly good," he said. "What we need is just a
steady ship for two, maybe three, years and then some of the
problems in terms of the debt will be far easier to resolve."

Arroyo, an economist, has put a tiny dent in entrenched
corruption, kept the budget deficit in check and resumed talks
about peace with Muslim and communist rebels.

But the government borrows frequently to make payments on debt
of US$61 billion to keep itself running with little left to
narrow vast regional and social disparities. Security, graft and
legal uncertainties remain as major concerns for investors.

"I don't think it makes any difference whether you elect
Gloria or you elect Poe," said Scott Harrison, managing director
of Manila-based risk consultancy Pacific Strategies & Assessments
and a former official at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.

"Both of them will not be able to solve the problems of the
Philippines. They don't have the resources."

Beyond being short of money, any leader must somehow align the
differing interests of a clan-based elite, 30 million people in
dire poverty, the Roman Catholic church, a Muslim minority and a
military that has spawned nine coup attempts in 18 years.

Arroyo softened her image as determined but distant with the
singing and dancing that is the lifeblood of politics here.

She relied mainly on the best bits of her record and state
machinery as Poe squandered a large lead by leaning on his film
roles as a gun-toting hero to the underdog and giving only
rudimentary details of his vision for 82 million Filipinos.

If the opinion polls are accurate, Arroyo will beat Poe
narrowly and three other challengers handily.

But to push her reforms, or even get the stalled 2004 budget
passed, her allies must win enough of the 17,000 congressional,
provincial and local seats also up for grabs on Monday.

Despite an anti-fraud pact by parties, stuffed ballot boxes,
bribed voters, violence and lawsuits are inevitable. The count
from thousands of islands may take weeks to confirm the winners.

One Asian diplomat said he hoped for fair, peaceful elections
and "a stable and clean government with more technocrats and
fewer politicians in the cabinet".

"Do pigs fly?" he said. "That's why I have my concerns."

Regardless of her mandate, Arroyo also faces hostility from
millions of poor voters who see her as a usurper who rose from
vice president when the elite engineered the overthrow of their
man, popular former actor Joseph Estrada, in January 2001.

Estrada, Poe's long-time drinking buddy, will remain a potent
force well after the election, even from his detention cell as he
stands trial on charges of economic plunder.

Some of the powerful clans, including the Marcoses and their
allies who grew rich while ruling the Philippines for 21 years,
are likely to continue resisting efforts to alter the status quo.

The winner will face immense challenges but Filipinos may be
closer to embracing the need for national unity, said Roberto de
Ocampo, president of the Asian Institute of Management and
finance secretary from 1992 to 1998.

"I am hoping the country is exhausted enough from a long
string of negative news that it may be just the sort of crisis
feeling that would make people get together," he said.

"I think we have gotten to the point where people will say the
alternative is going to be a lot worse."