Next Week's Sentiment: Markets on Edge Awaiting News from China and the US

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Market participants will once again scrutinise a series of important events next week, starting from Monday (13/4/2026), both domestically and globally. Investor focus will centre on a series of Chinese data releases, US consumption indicators, and a string of Bank Indonesia releases providing the latest picture of the domestic economy.

These data releases are crucial as they can influence the direction of the rupiah, IHSG, bonds, and commodity prices. Moreover, global markets are still seeking certainty regarding the strength of world economic growth amid prolonged high interest rates and unresolved trade tensions.

Indonesia’s Retail Sales, Testing Purchasing Power After Ramadan

From the domestic front, the first agenda comes from the Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey release on Monday (13/4/2026). This data often serves as one of the quickest indicators to gauge household consumption behaviour.

Bank Indonesia previously forecasted the Real Sales Index (IPR) for February 2026 to grow 6.9% year-on-year, higher than January’s 5.7% growth. On a monthly basis, retail sales are also projected to rise 4.4%, reversing January’s 2.7% contraction.

This increase is primarily supported by public demand during Ramadan and preparations for the National Religious Holiday of Eid al-Fitr. The groups of spare parts and accessories, household equipment, and clothing are said to be the main drivers.

Markets will watch whether the consumption surge is merely seasonal or reflects strengthening purchasing power. This is important because household consumption remains the backbone of Indonesia’s economic growth.

China’s Trade Balance, A New Compass for Commodity Prices

On Tuesday (14/4/2026), global attention turns to China, which will release its March 2026 trade balance, complete with export and import data.

In the previous period, China’s trade surplus surged to US$90.98 billion. For March, market consensus forecasts a surplus rising to US$112 billion, though other projections are around US$105 billion.

Previously, for the combined January-February 2026, China’s exports surged 21.8% year-on-year to US$656.58 billion. This surge marks the fastest pace since October 2021. Meanwhile, imports rose 19.8% to US$442.96 billion, the highest since early 2022.

Strong exports indicate that Chinese factories are still able to sell goods to the world, despite US tariff pressures. On the other hand, robust imports signal that domestic demand has not waned.

For Indonesia, this data is critical. China is the main buyer of coal, nickel, CPO, and various other raw materials. If China’s imports remain strong, sentiment towards domestic commodity stocks could improve. Conversely, weakening imports could pressure demand expectations.

US Producer Price Index

Still on Tuesday evening, the United States will release the March 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI). This is an indicator of prices at the producer level, often read as an early signal of consumer inflation.

In February 2026, the US PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, higher than January’s 0.5%. Year-on-year, producer inflation jumped to 3.4%, the highest in a year.

For March, consensus expects a 1.2% rise, with other projections at 1.3%. If realised, markets could assess that price pressures have not truly been tamed.

This situation is important for global markets because the Fed is highly sensitive to inflation. High price pressures could lead the US central bank to delay interest rate cuts. The impact is usually felt through a stronger US dollar, rising US bond yields, and pressure on emerging market currencies like the rupiah.

Indonesia’s External Debt

On Wednesday (15/4/2026), Bank Indonesia is scheduled to release Indonesia’s External Debt Statistics (SULNI) for February 2026.

Previously, Indonesia’s external debt position in January 2026 was recorded at US$434.7 billion, or growing 1.7% year-on-year, slowing from December 2025’s 1.8% growth.

The slowdown occurred because private debt fell to US$193 billion from US$194 billion. Year-on-year, private external debt even contracted 0.7%. Meanwhile, government external debt rose 5.6% to US$216.3 billion.

Markets will observe whether the moderation trend in private debt continues and how large the government’s financing needs are. External debt stability is important as it relates to external risk perceptions, exchange rates, and foreign capital flows.

China’s GDP

The highlight of next week’s agenda comes on Thursday (16/4/2026), when China releases first-quarter 2026 economic growth.

Previously, China’s economy grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, slowing from the previous quarter’s 4.8% and marking the weakest pace in three years.

For the first quarter of 2026, market consensus forecasts 5% growth, while some projections are at 5.2%.

This data will serve as the main benchmark for whether Beijing’s stimulus is sufficiently effective in supporting the economy amid pressures from the property sector, deflation, and trade tensions with the United States.

If China’s GDP is stronger than expected, Asian markets usually respond positively. Industrial metal prices and commodity-based stocks could be boosted. However, if disappointing, risk-off sentiment could re-emerge.

China’s Factories and Consumers Also Tested

On the same day, China will also release March industrial production and retail sales.

Previous industrial production grew 6.3%, above market expectations. Activity strengthened in manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

For the latest release, consensus forecasts 5.9% growth, while other projections are at 5.4%.

Meanwhile, retail sales previously rose 2.8%, and for March, it is expected to increase to 3.5%.

The combination of these two data points is important. Industrial production shows the pulse of factories, while retail sales reflects Chinese consumer confidence. If both are strong, markets could interpret a more even economic recovery.

Indonesia’s Business Activity and BI-PMI

On Friday (17/4/2026), Bank Indonesia will release the Business Activity Survey (SKDU) and Prompt Manufacturing Index (PMI-BI).