Next Week's Sentiment: Markets Nervously Await US Inflation and BI's Ammunition

Market participants will once again pay close attention to several important sentiments next week, starting from Monday (6/4/2026), both domestic and global. Domestically, investor attention will focus on the release of foreign exchange reserves and Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Consumer Confidence Index (IKK). Meanwhile, from the United States, the market awaits the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, consumer inflation data, PCE inflation, and developments in price pressures in China. This series of data is considered important because it can influence the direction of financial market movements, from the rupiah, IHSG, bonds, to commodity prices. Moreover, the market is still overshadowed by global uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which are driving surges in energy prices and strengthening demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar.

Indonesia’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

Domestically, market participants will await the release of Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserve position, scheduled to be announced by Bank Indonesia on Wednesday (8/4/2026). This data will be of particular interest because foreign exchange reserves are one of the key indicators for assessing Indonesia’s external resilience amid global market volatility. In the latest release, BI reported Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of February 2026 at US$151.9 billion. This figure is down from the end-of-January 2026 position of US$154.6 billion. BI explained that the decline was influenced by government foreign debt payments and rupiah exchange rate stabilisation policies amid high global financial market uncertainties. BI also stated that the reserve position is equivalent to financing 6.1 months of imports or 5.9 months of imports and government foreign debt payments, thus still well above the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports. This means the position is still considered adequate to support external sector resilience and maintain macroeconomic stability. Therefore, the March 2026 data will be closely watched by the market to gauge how strong Bank Indonesia’s room is to maintain rupiah stability. This is important because foreign exchange reserves also serve as one of BI’s ammunition for interventions in the foreign exchange market, especially when US dollar demand increases due to rising global concerns and energy price surges.

Consumer Confidence Index

In addition, market participants will also await the release of Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Survey, scheduled for announcement on Friday (9/4/2026). From this survey, the market’s main focus will be on the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) as this data provides an overview of household perceptions of the current economic conditions and their future expectations. In the latest release, Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Survey showed that consumer confidence in February 2026 remained strong. This is reflected in the February 2026 IKK at 125.2. This figure is indeed lower than January 2026’s 127.2, but it still indicates that consumers remain optimistic as the index stays above the 100 level. The sustained strength of consumer confidence in February was supported by the Current Economic Conditions Index (IKE) which rose to 115.9 from 115.1 in January. Meanwhile, the Consumer Expectations Index (IEK) remained at an optimistic level of 134.4, although down from the previous month. This situation shows that households still have sufficient confidence, although there is a slight decline in future expectations. Therefore, the March 2026 release will be monitored to see whether consumer optimism is still maintained or beginning to be pressured. This data is important because consumer confidence often serves as an early indicator of the direction of household consumption, which is the main pillar of Indonesia’s economic growth. If the IKK weakens, the market could interpret it as greater caution at the household level.

FOMC Minutes

From the United States, market attention will also focus on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, scheduled for early Thursday, 9 April 2026 at 01:00 WIB. This schedule follows the FOMC meeting held on 17-18 March 2026. This document will be closely examined by the market as it can provide a more detailed picture of how US central bank officials assess the economy, inflation, and future policy risks. Unlike the official statement after the meeting, FOMC Minutes usually offer deeper details on the internal debates among policymakers. In the current context, the market will particularly seek clues on how the Fed views the impact of the Middle East conflict on economic growth, inflation, and the direction of interest rates. This is important because the surge in energy prices could make the US central bank more cautious in opening room for monetary easing. The content of these minutes could influence market expectations on when the opportunity for Fed interest rate cuts will arise.

US Inflation

The next important sentiment comes from US inflation data, namely the March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release on Friday, 10 April 2026 at 19:30 WIB. In the latest release, US inflation for February 2026 was recorded at 0.5% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. Meanwhile, core inflation or core CPI was up 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. These figures indicate that price pressures in the US in February were still relatively contained, though not fully subsided. For the March data, the market expects inflation to surge quite sharply, particularly driven by rising energy prices related to the Iran conflict. March CPI is projected to rise 0.9% month-on-month, with annual inflation expected to reach 3.4%, the highest since April 2024. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.5%. Therefore, this data will be the main focus for market participants. If US inflation heats up higher than expected, the market could assess that the Fed will find it even more difficult to