New duo: Megawati and Hamzah?

New duo: Megawati and Hamzah?

By Miqdad Husein

JAKARTA (JP): There are rational arguments for the oft-
expressed fears that Megawati Soekarnoputri could face the same
fate as President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" should she become
president, but really she has nothing to worry about -- unless
she responds to political situations the way Abdurrahman usually
does.

The campaign against the President did not arise because of
politicians' greed for power, but rather by the President's own
deeds and words.

There's a lesson to be learned from Abdurrahman's problems for
Vice President Megawati and the Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) -- in that she must not abandon the
political forces who are now supporting her.

Another lesson is that she should not ignore the political
reality that no administration in Indonesia will be able to
remain stable unless it accommodates the two major political
forces, namely the Muslims and the nationalists.

As evident from the early years of the republic, if these two
forces clash, there would be serious political problems. If the
Islamic forces ignored the nationalists or vice versa, no
administration would enjoy stability.

The situation would be even worse should one of them be in
power and repressed the other.

Since the New Order regime to the 1990s, the country had been
in a state of pseudostability. The New Order, by sidelining the
Muslims, turned into a very repressive regime. Bloody conflicts
easily erupted, rupturing all semblance of stability and
democratic dynamism touted by the power holders then.

From the 1990s onward, there was a change in the political
direction when Islamic political forces began to take center
stage and make mistakes their predecessors had never done.

Among the mistakes was for the Islamic political forces to
fall for mere ceremonies of power, sending jitters to minorities
in Indonesia and non-Muslim fundamentals outside Indonesia.

Efforts were systematically made from every corner of the
country and also by certain quarters abroad, to rock the Islamic
political forces, which, by then, had already started to play a
significant role in the country's politics and were not as
"ruthless" as the political forces preceding it.

Nothing good came out of the two positions which have
substantively ignored the reality of domestic politics. They both
created problems, and failed to give constructive contributions
to Indonesia's political development.

The Gus Dur-Megawati duo is at least quite, if not very, ideal
with regards to the domestic political balance, particularly in
terms of accommodating the Islamic and national political forces.

Unfortunately, early in his term, Gus Dur turned into a single
fighter and put all the power in his hands at the risk of losing
support from political forces that had been underpinning him.

Should Megawati replace him, she and her party must never fall
for the trap set by a handful of people surrounding her, nudging
her to repeat the mistakes once committed by the New Order
regime. Those people would like to see Megawati ignore the
Islamic political reality and abandon the Islamic political
forces, a power now developing significantly.

Looking at the current national political anatomy, who will be
most suitable to become Megawati's deputy should she replace Gus
Dur as president? Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Akbar Tandjung,
Hamzah Haz, Amien Rais or Nurcholis Madjid?

These figures have their proven track records. Now that we are
still in a transitional period, it is quite risky to select a
figure without a real power base, or a nonparty man. If this
happens, the powerful political parties will be greatly
disillusion.

In this context, Bambang and Nurcholis, whose qualifications
are unquestionable, must be disqualified simply because they have
no political base. As a retired military personnel, Bambang is no
longer linked with the military. As for Nurcholish, as he said
himself, he has not done anything that qualifies him for the
"gift" of the vice presidency.

So now we have only three persons to choose from: Akbar,
Hamzah and Amien. The three of them command a real political
force and if they are left out in a power-sharing deal, there
will be political problems.

With reference to the political anatomy dwelled upon earlier,
only Hamzah and Amien represent the interests of the Islamic
political reality. Akbar, despite his former position as general
chairman of the executive board of the Islamic Students
Association, does not command an Islamic political base.

This leaves Hamzah or Amien, as the representation of Islamic
politics in Indonesia. Both are equally good and stand an equally
fair chance for becoming vice president.

It seems, however, that a Megawati-Amien duet will be
psychologically burdensome to both. Megawati will have her own
worries about Amien being more aggressive than her, especially
because he still nurtures an ambition to become president, and,
as he has often said himself, is not interested in the vice
presidency.

Amien has raised no doubts in terms of his Islamic
qualification, as his National Mandate Party (PAN) constituencies
are nearly all made up of circles within the Muhammadiyah
organization, which he formerly chaired.

Hamzah, apart from being considered an expert in the state
budget, can represent more Islamic constituencies as his United
Development Party (PPP) brings together all Islamic potentials
and constituencies such as Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Muhammadiyah,
the Islamiyah Propagation Council, Tarbiyah Islamiyah Association
(Perti), United Islamic Party of Indonesia (PSII), Al-Irsyad and
so forth.

Hamzah is a low-profile figure and is relatively acceptable
in all circles. As a moderate NU figure, he is at home in any
Islamic community, traditional or modern.

Could other figures emerge? Very likely -- as long as the
national leadership duo reflects the representation of the
political reality, the Muslims and nationalists.

The writer chairs the research and development department of
the central executive board of the United Development Party.