New duo: Megawati and Hamzah?

By Miqdad Husein

JAKARTA (JP): There are rational arguments for the oft- expressed fears that Megawati Soekarnoputri could face the same fate as President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" should she become president, but really she has nothing to worry about -- unless she responds to political situations the way Abdurrahman usually does.

The campaign against the President did not arise because of politicians' greed for power, but rather by the President's own deeds and words.

There's a lesson to be learned from Abdurrahman's problems for Vice President Megawati and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) -- in that she must not abandon the political forces who are now supporting her.

Another lesson is that she should not ignore the political reality that no administration in Indonesia will be able to remain stable unless it accommodates the two major political forces, namely the Muslims and the nationalists.

As evident from the early years of the republic, if these two forces clash, there would be serious political problems. If the Islamic forces ignored the nationalists or vice versa, no administration would enjoy stability.

The situation would be even worse should one of them be in power and repressed the other.

Since the New Order regime to the 1990s, the country had been in a state of pseudostability. The New Order, by sidelining the Muslims, turned into a very repressive regime. Bloody conflicts easily erupted, rupturing all semblance of stability and democratic dynamism touted by the power holders then.

From the 1990s onward, there was a change in the political direction when Islamic political forces began to take center stage and make mistakes their predecessors had never done.

Among the mistakes was for the Islamic political forces to fall for mere ceremonies of power, sending jitters to minorities in Indonesia and non-Muslim fundamentals outside Indonesia.

Efforts were systematically made from every corner of the country and also by certain quarters abroad, to rock the Islamic political forces, which, by then, had already started to play a significant role in the country's politics and were not as "ruthless" as the political forces preceding it.

Nothing good came out of the two positions which have substantively ignored the reality of domestic politics. They both created problems, and failed to give constructive contributions to Indonesia's political development.

The Gus Dur-Megawati duo is at least quite, if not very, ideal with regards to the domestic political balance, particularly in terms of accommodating the Islamic and national political forces.

Unfortunately, early in his term, Gus Dur turned into a single fighter and put all the power in his hands at the risk of losing support from political forces that had been underpinning him.

Should Megawati replace him, she and her party must never fall for the trap set by a handful of people surrounding her, nudging her to repeat the mistakes once committed by the New Order regime. Those people would like to see Megawati ignore the Islamic political reality and abandon the Islamic political forces, a power now developing significantly.

Looking at the current national political anatomy, who will be most suitable to become Megawati's deputy should she replace Gus Dur as president? Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Akbar Tandjung, Hamzah Haz, Amien Rais or Nurcholis Madjid?

These figures have their proven track records. Now that we are still in a transitional period, it is quite risky to select a figure without a real power base, or a nonparty man. If this happens, the powerful political parties will be greatly disillusion.

In this context, Bambang and Nurcholis, whose qualifications are unquestionable, must be disqualified simply because they have no political base. As a retired military personnel, Bambang is no longer linked with the military. As for Nurcholish, as he said himself, he has not done anything that qualifies him for the "gift" of the vice presidency.

So now we have only three persons to choose from: Akbar, Hamzah and Amien. The three of them command a real political force and if they are left out in a power-sharing deal, there will be political problems.

With reference to the political anatomy dwelled upon earlier, only Hamzah and Amien represent the interests of the Islamic political reality. Akbar, despite his former position as general chairman of the executive board of the Islamic Students Association, does not command an Islamic political base.

This leaves Hamzah or Amien, as the representation of Islamic politics in Indonesia. Both are equally good and stand an equally fair chance for becoming vice president.

It seems, however, that a Megawati-Amien duet will be psychologically burdensome to both. Megawati will have her own worries about Amien being more aggressive than her, especially because he still nurtures an ambition to become president, and, as he has often said himself, is not interested in the vice presidency.

Amien has raised no doubts in terms of his Islamic qualification, as his National Mandate Party (PAN) constituencies are nearly all made up of circles within the Muhammadiyah organization, which he formerly chaired.

Hamzah, apart from being considered an expert in the state budget, can represent more Islamic constituencies as his United Development Party (PPP) brings together all Islamic potentials and constituencies such as Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Muhammadiyah, the Islamiyah Propagation Council, Tarbiyah Islamiyah Association (Perti), United Islamic Party of Indonesia (PSII), Al-Irsyad and so forth.

Hamzah is a low-profile figure and is relatively acceptable in all circles. As a moderate NU figure, he is at home in any Islamic community, traditional or modern.

Could other figures emerge? Very likely -- as long as the national leadership duo reflects the representation of the political reality, the Muslims and nationalists.

The writer chairs the research and development department of the central executive board of the United Development Party.