New duo: Megawati and Hamzah?<\/p>\n
By Miqdad Husein<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): There are rational arguments for the oft-
\nexpressed fears that Megawati Soekarnoputri could face the same
\nfate as President Abdurrahman \"Gus Dur\" should she become
\npresident, but really she has nothing to worry about -- unless
\nshe responds to political situations the way Abdurrahman usually
\ndoes.<\/p>\n
The campaign against the President did not arise because of
\npoliticians' greed for power, but rather by the President's own
\ndeeds and words.<\/p>\n
There's a lesson to be learned from Abdurrahman's problems for
\nVice President Megawati and the Indonesian Democratic Party of
\nStruggle (PDI Perjuangan) -- in that she must not abandon the
\npolitical forces who are now supporting her.<\/p>\n
Another lesson is that she should not ignore the political
\nreality that no administration in Indonesia will be able to
\nremain stable unless it accommodates the two major political
\nforces, namely the Muslims and the nationalists.<\/p>\n
As evident from the early years of the republic, if these two
\nforces clash, there would be serious political problems. If the
\nIslamic forces ignored the nationalists or vice versa, no
\nadministration would enjoy stability.<\/p>\n
The situation would be even worse should one of them be in
\npower and repressed the other.<\/p>\n
Since the New Order regime to the 1990s, the country had been
\nin a state of pseudostability. The New Order, by sidelining the
\nMuslims, turned into a very repressive regime. Bloody conflicts
\neasily erupted, rupturing all semblance of stability and
\ndemocratic dynamism touted by the power holders then.<\/p>\n
From the 1990s onward, there was a change in the political
\ndirection when Islamic political forces began to take center
\nstage and make mistakes their predecessors had never done.<\/p>\n
Among the mistakes was for the Islamic political forces to
\nfall for mere ceremonies of power, sending jitters to minorities
\nin Indonesia and non-Muslim fundamentals outside Indonesia.<\/p>\n
Efforts were systematically made from every corner of the
\ncountry and also by certain quarters abroad, to rock the Islamic
\npolitical forces, which, by then, had already started to play a
\nsignificant role in the country's politics and were not as
\n\"ruthless\" as the political forces preceding it.<\/p>\n
Nothing good came out of the two positions which have
\nsubstantively ignored the reality of domestic politics. They both
\ncreated problems, and failed to give constructive contributions
\nto Indonesia's political development.<\/p>\n
The Gus Dur-Megawati duo is at least quite, if not very, ideal
\nwith regards to the domestic political balance, particularly in
\nterms of accommodating the Islamic and national political forces.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, early in his term, Gus Dur turned into a single
\nfighter and put all the power in his hands at the risk of losing
\nsupport from political forces that had been underpinning him.<\/p>\n
Should Megawati replace him, she and her party must never fall
\nfor the trap set by a handful of people surrounding her, nudging
\nher to repeat the mistakes once committed by the New Order
\nregime. Those people would like to see Megawati ignore the
\nIslamic political reality and abandon the Islamic political
\nforces, a power now developing significantly.<\/p>\n
Looking at the current national political anatomy, who will be
\nmost suitable to become Megawati's deputy should she replace Gus
\nDur as president? Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Akbar Tandjung,
\nHamzah Haz, Amien Rais or Nurcholis Madjid?<\/p>\n
These figures have their proven track records. Now that we are
\nstill in a transitional period, it is quite risky to select a
\nfigure without a real power base, or a nonparty man. If this
\nhappens, the powerful political parties will be greatly
\ndisillusion.<\/p>\n
In this context, Bambang and Nurcholis, whose qualifications
\nare unquestionable, must be disqualified simply because they have
\nno political base. As a retired military personnel, Bambang is no
\nlonger linked with the military. As for Nurcholish, as he said
\nhimself, he has not done anything that qualifies him for the
\n\"gift\" of the vice presidency.<\/p>\n
So now we have only three persons to choose from: Akbar,
\nHamzah and Amien. The three of them command a real political
\nforce and if they are left out in a power-sharing deal, there
\nwill be political problems.<\/p>\n
With reference to the political anatomy dwelled upon earlier,
\nonly Hamzah and Amien represent the interests of the Islamic
\npolitical reality. Akbar, despite his former position as general
\nchairman of the executive board of the Islamic Students
\nAssociation, does not command an Islamic political base.<\/p>\n
This leaves Hamzah or Amien, as the representation of Islamic
\npolitics in Indonesia. Both are equally good and stand an equally
\nfair chance for becoming vice president.<\/p>\n
It seems, however, that a Megawati-Amien duet will be
\npsychologically burdensome to both. Megawati will have her own
\nworries about Amien being more aggressive than her, especially
\nbecause he still nurtures an ambition to become president, and,
\nas he has often said himself, is not interested in the vice
\npresidency.<\/p>\n
Amien has raised no doubts in terms of his Islamic
\nqualification, as his National Mandate Party (PAN) constituencies
\nare nearly all made up of circles within the Muhammadiyah
\norganization, which he formerly chaired.<\/p>\n
Hamzah, apart from being considered an expert in the state
\nbudget, can represent more Islamic constituencies as his United
\nDevelopment Party (PPP) brings together all Islamic potentials
\nand constituencies such as Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Muhammadiyah,
\nthe Islamiyah Propagation Council, Tarbiyah Islamiyah Association
\n(Perti), United Islamic Party of Indonesia (PSII), Al-Irsyad and
\nso forth.<\/p>\n
Hamzah is a low-profile figure and is relatively acceptable
\nin all circles. As a moderate NU figure, he is at home in any
\nIslamic community, traditional or modern.<\/p>\n
Could other figures emerge? Very likely -- as long as the
\nnational leadership duo reflects the representation of the
\npolitical reality, the Muslims and nationalists.<\/p>\n
The writer chairs the research and development department of
\nthe central executive board of the United Development Party.<\/p>",
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