New best friends Clinton, Jiang rattle the region

New best friends Clinton, Jiang rattle the region

By John Gittings

HONG KONG: The energy and speed with which Bill Clinton and
Jiang Zemin clinched their romance in Beijing has raised a
confusion of well publicized hopes and less articulate fears.

A summit which had seemed to falter before it began was hailed
by the participants as an instant success. But around Asia
reactions to the U.S.-China euphoria have been more guarded as
the region tries to interpret the mixed signals the summit sends
out.

Taiwan heard bad news Tuesday when Clinton, taking part in a
Shanghai radio phone-in, defined U.S. policy in terms more
favorable to Beijing than he has previously used. But the Dalai
Lama sees a positive signal in what the two presidents said about
the possibility of negotiations regarding Tibet, during their
sensationally televised debate on human rights last Saturday.

On Tuesday Clinton again praised China as a "force for
stability" in coping with the Asian economic crisis; and China is
regarded as having signed up to more active efforts to prevent
nuclear proliferation.

But gloomy fears are being expressed in Tokyo about a new
U.S.-China era and a Japan which is "passed by". And India has
condemned the two presidents' agreement to tackle the security
problem in South Asia as the hypocrisy of the nuclear haves --
and is reported to be planning to build a nuclear submarine with
Russian aid.

Responding to Chinese hints that Taiwan remains the main
obstacle to even better relations, Clinton endorsed a formula
known as the "three nos", which includes an explicit statement
that Washington does not support independence for Taiwan. The
formula was absent in the joint statement after Jiang's visit to
Washington last October, although it has been used by some U.S.
officials.

On Tibet, Jiang said that negotiations were possible with the
Dalai Lama if he recognized Tibet to be part of China and Taiwan
as "a province of China". A planned trip by the Dalai to Taiwan
was apparently canceled three weeks ago, suggesting that some
form of negotiations may already be under way.

The long-term effect of the summit upon China internally is
even harder to gauge than its impact upon international
diplomacy. The meeting has thrown up vastly divergent analyses of
whether it has changed everything or nothing at all.

Some, like the Hong Kong analyst Willy Lam, believe that
Jiang has taken a big gamble by letting Clinton preach U.S.
political ideals on Chinese soil. This is likely to speed up the
development of a looser political atmosphere.

Other commentators go further still, predicting that the
Chinese Communist Party's grip, once loosened, will not survive.
Jiang is cast as a Mikhail Gorbachev.

The Clinton camp does not claim any such intention. On the
contrary, Clinton is telling Jiang publicly and privately that
the party's best chance of retaining power is to move on to "the
right side of history" -- in partnership with a democratic and
benevolent U.S.

But a few simple facts need to be restated and a note of
caution sounded. The summit in Beijing last Saturday came after a
very shaky start to the Clinton visit, including a formal U.S.
protest against the Chinese harassment of dissidents in the town
of Xian, where Clinton began his tour. This raises the question
of whether Jiang is playing hard and soft at the same time, and
what practical improvement can be expected on the ground.

Clinton's speech on Monday to Beijing University also needs to
be seen in context: while arguing that human rights were
universal, he avoided specifics that might upset his Chinese
hosts. The speech as a whole was not unacceptable to the
government -- yet even so, it was virtually ignored in Tuesday's
official press. And there is little doubt that the students who
put "tough" questions to Clinton were pre-selected.

Beijing has a great capacity to pre-arrange and control events
that are apparently spontaneous. It is inconceivable that on a
visit of this importance, the Xian authorities would have been
left to decide whether local dissidents should be allowed to meet
foreign journalists covering Clinton's tour. Jiang showed brazen
cheek in claiming that he was not aware of the details.

Jiang has emerged this year as a man who does have some
appreciation of the need for a gradual reform of China's
political structure as well its economy, a process necessary both
for its own sake and to secure a favorable climate abroad --
particularly in the U.S.

But there has been no progress in Chinese market
liberalization to encourage the U.S. to assist in Beijing's entry
to the World Trade Organization. And though trade was supposed to
be central to the summit, the US$2 billion in business signed in
Beijing includes as always some double-counting and orders that
may not materialize.

The Chinese are more reticent than the Americans about
discussing the long-term future of their new partnership, but
both have been spurred on by the combined shock effect of the
regional economic crisis and the nuclear tests in South Asia.

The question is not whether Jiang is a crypto-democrat, but
what concessions he will make in order to achieve the grand
partnership design -- and whether these may have unintended
results internally if, for example, he is seen as going soft on
Tibet.

Even so, the two presidents have set a new course that
transcends trade and other problems. Neither can be sure whether
it will peter out or move dramatically on, but it has already
created shock waves in Asia.

-- Guardian News Service