New best friends Clinton, Jiang rattle the region<\/p>\n
By John Gittings<\/p>\n
HONG KONG: The energy and speed with which Bill Clinton and
\nJiang Zemin clinched their romance in Beijing has raised a
\nconfusion of well publicized hopes and less articulate fears.<\/p>\n
A summit which had seemed to falter before it began was hailed
\nby the participants as an instant success. But around Asia
\nreactions to the U.S.-China euphoria have been more guarded as
\nthe region tries to interpret the mixed signals the summit sends
\nout.<\/p>\n
Taiwan heard bad news Tuesday when Clinton, taking part in a
\nShanghai radio phone-in, defined U.S. policy in terms more
\nfavorable to Beijing than he has previously used. But the Dalai
\nLama sees a positive signal in what the two presidents said about
\nthe possibility of negotiations regarding Tibet, during their
\nsensationally televised debate on human rights last Saturday.<\/p>\n
On Tuesday Clinton again praised China as a \"force for
\nstability\" in coping with the Asian economic crisis; and China is
\nregarded as having signed up to more active efforts to prevent
\nnuclear proliferation.<\/p>\n
But gloomy fears are being expressed in Tokyo about a new
\nU.S.-China era and a Japan which is \"passed by\". And India has
\ncondemned the two presidents' agreement to tackle the security
\nproblem in South Asia as the hypocrisy of the nuclear haves --
\nand is reported to be planning to build a nuclear submarine with
\nRussian aid.<\/p>\n
Responding to Chinese hints that Taiwan remains the main
\nobstacle to even better relations, Clinton endorsed a formula
\nknown as the \"three nos\", which includes an explicit statement
\nthat Washington does not support independence for Taiwan. The
\nformula was absent in the joint statement after Jiang's visit to
\nWashington last October, although it has been used by some U.S.
\nofficials.<\/p>\n
On Tibet, Jiang said that negotiations were possible with the
\nDalai Lama if he recognized Tibet to be part of China and Taiwan
\nas \"a province of China\". A planned trip by the Dalai to Taiwan
\nwas apparently canceled three weeks ago, suggesting that some
\nform of negotiations may already be under way.<\/p>\n
The long-term effect of the summit upon China internally is
\neven harder to gauge than its impact upon international
\ndiplomacy. The meeting has thrown up vastly divergent analyses of
\nwhether it has changed everything or nothing at all.<\/p>\n
Some, like the Hong Kong analyst Willy Lam, believe that
\nJiang has taken a big gamble by letting Clinton preach U.S.
\npolitical ideals on Chinese soil. This is likely to speed up the
\ndevelopment of a looser political atmosphere.<\/p>\n
Other commentators go further still, predicting that the
\nChinese Communist Party's grip, once loosened, will not survive.
\nJiang is cast as a Mikhail Gorbachev.<\/p>\n
The Clinton camp does not claim any such intention. On the
\ncontrary, Clinton is telling Jiang publicly and privately that
\nthe party's best chance of retaining power is to move on to \"the
\nright side of history\" -- in partnership with a democratic and
\nbenevolent U.S.<\/p>\n
But a few simple facts need to be restated and a note of
\ncaution sounded. The summit in Beijing last Saturday came after a
\nvery shaky start to the Clinton visit, including a formal U.S.
\nprotest against the Chinese harassment of dissidents in the town
\nof Xian, where Clinton began his tour. This raises the question
\nof whether Jiang is playing hard and soft at the same time, and
\nwhat practical improvement can be expected on the ground.<\/p>\n
Clinton's speech on Monday to Beijing University also needs to
\nbe seen in context: while arguing that human rights were
\nuniversal, he avoided specifics that might upset his Chinese
\nhosts. The speech as a whole was not unacceptable to the
\ngovernment -- yet even so, it was virtually ignored in Tuesday's
\nofficial press. And there is little doubt that the students who
\nput \"tough\" questions to Clinton were pre-selected.<\/p>\n
Beijing has a great capacity to pre-arrange and control events
\nthat are apparently spontaneous. It is inconceivable that on a
\nvisit of this importance, the Xian authorities would have been
\nleft to decide whether local dissidents should be allowed to meet
\nforeign journalists covering Clinton's tour. Jiang showed brazen
\ncheek in claiming that he was not aware of the details.<\/p>\n
Jiang has emerged this year as a man who does have some
\nappreciation of the need for a gradual reform of China's
\npolitical structure as well its economy, a process necessary both
\nfor its own sake and to secure a favorable climate abroad --
\nparticularly in the U.S.<\/p>\n
But there has been no progress in Chinese market
\nliberalization to encourage the U.S. to assist in Beijing's entry
\nto the World Trade Organization. And though trade was supposed to
\nbe central to the summit, the US$2 billion in business signed in
\nBeijing includes as always some double-counting and orders that
\nmay not materialize.<\/p>\n
The Chinese are more reticent than the Americans about
\ndiscussing the long-term future of their new partnership, but
\nboth have been spurred on by the combined shock effect of the
\nregional economic crisis and the nuclear tests in South Asia.<\/p>\n
The question is not whether Jiang is a crypto-democrat, but
\nwhat concessions he will make in order to achieve the grand
\npartnership design -- and whether these may have unintended
\nresults internally if, for example, he is seen as going soft on
\nTibet.<\/p>\n
Even so, the two presidents have set a new course that
\ntranscends trade and other problems. Neither can be sure whether
\nit will peter out or move dramatically on, but it has already
\ncreated shock waves in Asia.<\/p>\n
-- Guardian News Service<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/new-best-friends-clinton-jiang-rattle-the-region-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }