NATO Rejects Joining US in Blocking Strait of Hormuz
The war between Iran, the US, and Israel is expected to resume following the failure of 21-hour negotiations in Pakistan during a two-week ceasefire that began on 8 April 2026. Signs of renewed conflict emerged after US President Donald Trump announced that the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz in response to the failed talks. The blockade targets all ships entering or exiting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. US warships are also pursuing vessels that have illegally paid fees to Iranian authorities to navigate the strategic strait.
During the ceasefire, after more than a month of fighting, Iran lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and then imposed a fee of one US dollar per barrel of cargo on all ships passing through the strait. According to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), Iran’s actions violate international law. The blockades imposed by both Iran and the US raise concerns that global oil prices could surge once again.
The US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, along with its escort ships, has taken up position near the Strait of Hormuz to enforce the blockade. This situation complicates matters, given the high volume of traffic through the strait, including ships flying the flags of China, Russia, and North Korea. Will US naval forces inspect vessels from these three countries as well? The consequences could be severe and might escalate the situation in ways detrimental to the world. Furthermore, Iran is certain not to remain passive in the face of the US blockade, especially since President Trump has previously threatened to “destroy the entire Iranian civilisation”.
US allies in Europe have rejected joining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already expressed his refusal. Instead, the UK and France will host a conference to form a multinational mission. French President Emmanuel Macron described the multinational mission as defensive, tasked with escorting tanker ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The mission will involve around 30 countries, including Gulf states. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the mission will proceed if all 32 NATO member states approve its formation.
Iran Is Not Venezuela
In the war that has lasted more than a month, the US and Israel have been overwhelmed in facing Iran on the battlefield. Iranian forces are not as calculated by the US and Israel: they are resilient and adept at using various military equipment, achieving a political victory that led to the US imposing a two-week ceasefire for negotiations in Pakistan.
In the February-March war, in terms of military equipment, US forces were actually no match for Iran, so President Trump underestimated Iran. Trump may have equated Iran with Venezuela, whose president was easily captured by US forces without resistance. With similar confidence, Trump launched the war on 28 February and succeeded in killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and Revolutionary Guard Commander Mohammad Pakpour.
But Iran is different from Venezuela. Initially, the US hoped that with the deaths of Khamenei and other Iranian leaders, the Iranian people would revolt, leading to a change in national leadership. However, the assassination of Iranian leaders instead united the Iranian people against the US and Israel. Iran launched thousands of drones at various US military bases in the Gulf. This marked the turning point of Iran’s victory in the war between the small against the fully armed giant, akin to David against Goliath.
Iran executed a strategy of attrition warfare combined with asymmetric tactics: prolonging the war and targeting the economies of the US and Israel, which must fund a high-cost conflict. Aerial attacks using drones costing only 400 million rupiah each forced the US and Israel to respond with interceptor missiles costing 60 billion rupiah each. On the other hand, asymmetric warfare was waged by Iranian proxies in Lebanon through Hezbollah and in Yemen via the Houthis: disrupting shipping traffic in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
To enhance the effectiveness of the war, Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil flows since 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow strait. Iran deployed sea mines there and detonated them against non-compliant ships. The warships sent by Trump failed to open the strait. US warships also could not escort merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the other side, Iran’s ballistic missiles proved capable of penetrating the defences of both Israel and the US. Even Iran’s intercontinental cruise missiles (ICBMs) could reach Diego Garcia in the middle of the Indian Ocean, 4,000 km from Iranian territory. US F-15E Strike Eagle and A-10 Thunderbolt II fighter jets could also be shot down by Iranian air defence missiles. Advanced US F-35 Lightning II aircraft were reportedly damaged by Iranian attacks. The situation on the US battlefield worsened with domestic opposition to Trump’s policy of waging war without Congressional approval. Large-scale protests erupted within the country, while US allies in Europe refused to assist in the war. These factors appear to have led to the agreement on a ceasefire.
The war has temporarily halted for two weeks, and the US has accepted 10 Iranian proposals, namely: a non-aggression commitment towards Iran; Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz; Iran’s right to uranium enrichment; lifting economic sanctions on Iran; releasing Iran’s frozen assets held by the US; cancelling all UN Security Council resolutions; cancelling all resolutions from the IAEA Board of Governors; war compensation payments; US troop withdrawal; and halting the war on all fronts including