Mysterious Accounts Emerge, Reaping Billions from Iran-US Betting

Mysterious accounts have emerged on the Polymarket prediction platform, reportedly reaping billions of rupiah from bets related to the surprise announcement of a United States (US)-Iran ceasefire. According to public blockchain data analysed by crypto platform Dune Analytics, dozens of new accounts placed large bets just hours before US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire agreement. Previously, the situation appeared to be heating up, with Trump issuing strong threats against Iran and no strong signals of an imminent peace deal. One account created on the same day placed a bet of around US$72,000, equivalent to Rp1.2 billion, which later yielded profits of up to US$200,000 or about Rp3.4 billion. Several other accounts also recorded substantial gains, from hundreds of millions to billions of rupiah, from similar bets placed right before the official announcement. In total, a number of accounts reportedly reaped more than US$600,000 or around Rp10.2 billion from this betting activity. Interestingly, most of these accounts were new with no prior transaction history. This activity has sparked public suspicion due to the highly precise betting pattern aligned with the announcement timing. While blockchain data is transparent, it cannot reveal the identities behind these accounts. Anonymous wallet systems allow one party to control multiple accounts simultaneously. Some bets have yet to be paid out because the ceasefire contract status is marked as “disputed”, due to the on-ground situation not yet being fully stable, including ongoing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and continued military attacks. This phenomenon has once again raised concerns about the potential use of insider information in prediction markets, especially as similar patterns have occurred in bets related to other geopolitical events. “This is why these markets need regulation. We cannot allow people to trade on secret information,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University, as quoted by The Guardian on Thursday (9/4/2026). Several US Congress members are now pushing for new rules to expand the definition of insider trading to include activities on prediction markets like Polymarket.