Mudik and Eid al-Fitr Boost Hopes for Q1 2026 Economic Growth Above 5 Percent
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — The momentum of mudik and the celebration of Eid al-Fitr 2026 is expected to be one of the main pillars of Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of this year.
The government, central bank, business actors, and economists assess that increased public consumption, accelerated state spending, and various policy stimuli can drive domestic economic activity amid global uncertainties.
Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto stated that the government has prepared several programmes to maintain purchasing power while encouraging public mobility during Ramadan through to Eid.
“We hope that with this victory, we can achieve 5.5 percent economic growth in the first quarter,” said Airlangga when met at the Eid open house event on Saturday (21/3/2026).
On that occasion, Airlangga also touched on global dynamics that remain a challenge for the economy.
“Happy Eid al-Fitr, forgiveness on this blessed day, and in this atmosphere, we certainly hope to face the upcoming oil crisis turbulence together,” he said.
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo stated that economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to increase, supported by domestic demand, particularly strengthening household consumption in line with the National Major Religious Holiday (HBKN) celebrations.
“The momentum of strengthening Indonesia’s economic growth needs to be continuously maintained amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 will increase, supported by domestic demand,” said Perry at the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting in March 2026 on Tuesday (17/3/2026).
He added that high public mobility during HBKN events such as Chinese New Year, Nyepi, and Eid al-Fitr serves as a driving factor for consumption.
According to him, the increase in consumption is also supported by various government stimulus programmes, BI’s monetary policy easing, and improvements in consumer expectations.
In addition to consumption, investment is expected to continue growing, driven by the realisation of government programmes such as the Red and White Village/Urban Ward Cooperatives and natural resource downstreaming projects.
“So, support for economic growth will remain high in the first quarter. And of course, we estimate it will remain high and also support future economic growth improvements,” he said.
The government is confident that economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 can be above 5 percent, in line with the maintenance of public purchasing power during Ramadan through to Eid.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa projected that economic growth could reach 5.6 to 5.7 percent.
“Economic growth could be 5.6-5.7 percent, if it’s a rough estimate. That’s pretty good, amid the current global turbulence,” he said at the Directorate General of Taxes Office, Jakarta, on Saturday (21/3/2026).
“The current global impact is not yet felt because it has been absorbed by the government. So we are really ensuring that the public can carry out normal activities,” said Purbaya.