MSCI to Release Data That Will Keep Investors Awake, Here's the Schedule

Entering the second week of May, market participants will face a series of crucial macroeconomic data releases and capital market agendas that could determine the direction of stock exchanges. This week’s sentiments include inflation releases from China and the United States, domestic consumption indicators, global index composition adjustments, and long holiday schedules impacting trading days. Although there are long holidays this week, investors still need to carefully examine the details of each catalyst to anticipate potential volatility levels. China’s Inflation Rate Markets will monitor the release of China’s annual inflation data for the April 2026 period. Previously, China’s inflation rate in March 2026 eased to 1% from its three-year high of 1.3% in February, missing market expectations of 1.2%. This decline was driven by a much softer rise in food prices at 0.3% compared to 1.7% the previous month. This was triggered by a sharp slowdown in prices for fresh vegetables and fruits, accompanied by a steeper drop in pork prices. On the other hand, non-food inflation remained largely unchanged at 1.2%, with clothing prices up 1.6%, healthcare up 1.9%, and education up 1.1%. Transportation costs rebounded to 0.9%, while housing costs still recorded a decline of -0.2%. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index actually fell 0.7%, marking the first decline since November last year. For April 2026 data, market consensus projects inflation will ease further to the range of 0.8% to 0.9%. Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Index Domestically, Bank Indonesia is scheduled to release the Consumer Confidence Index data for April 2026. In March, this index fell to 122.9 from 125.2 the previous month, marking the lowest level since October last year. This decline occurred alongside the worsening of most component sub-indices. Expectations for economic conditions plunged 4.0 points to 130.4, while income expectations for the next six months dropped 3.0 points to 137.7. Job availability expectations also fell 3.7 points to 128.0. Furthermore, the index for durable goods purchases compared to six months ago dropped 2.8 points to 109.2, and perceptions of current economic conditions fell slightly 0.5 points to 115.4. The only positive anomaly was the view of current income levels, which rose 4.2 points to 129.2. Market projections estimate the index for April 2026 will continue to weaken to 122. Indonesia’s Retail Sales Another domestic consumption indicator in the spotlight is Indonesia’s retail sales data for the March 2026 period. In February 2026, retail sales recorded annual growth of 6.5%, the fastest pace since March 2024 due to strong household spending during Ramadan. This growth was led by the automotive parts and accessories sector surging 13.1%, food, beverages, and tobacco at 8.8%, and clothing at 4.9%. Cultural and recreational goods also expanded 10.1%. Conversely, sales remained weak for motor vehicle fuel at -9.3% and information and communication equipment plunging -28.3%. On a monthly basis, retail sales grew 4.1%, recording the strongest increase in the last 11 months. Following post-celebration normalisation, retail sales growth for March 2026 is projected at 6.8%. United States Inflation Rate The main global focus will be on the US April 2026 inflation data release. In March, the annual inflation rate jumped to 3.3%, marking the highest level since May 2024. This increase was primarily driven by a surge in energy costs of 12.5%, with petrol prices rocketing 18.9% and fuel oil soaring 44.2% due to the war with Iran. On the other hand, used car and truck prices continued to decline by -3.2%, while shelter inflation stabilised at 3% and food inflation eased to 2.7%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9%, driven by a gas price surge of 21.2%, becoming the largest increase since June 2022. Market consensus estimates inflationary pressures in April 2026 will continue, with projections of a rise in the range of 3.4% to 3.6%. United States Core Inflation Rate Alongside general inflation, US core inflation data excluding food and energy components will also be released for the April 2026 period. In March 2026, core inflation rose moderately to 2.6%. Inflation remains relatively high for non-energy services at 3%, covering shelter costs at 3%, transportation services at 4.1%, and medical care services at 3.7%. Meanwhile, inflation for commodities outside food and energy is at 2.6%, as higher ready-made clothing tariffs at 3.4% offset the decline in used car and truck prices. For the April data release, market consensus projects core inflation will tend to stabilise at 2.6%. United States Retail Sales US retail sales data for April 2026 will provide deep insights into the strength of consumer purchasing power amid monetary tightening. In March 2026, retail sales figures grew 4% annually. Historically, US retail sales growth averages 4.74% since 1993, with the highest record of 51.80% in April 2021 and the lowest of -19.70% in April 2020 due to the pandemic. Projections for April 2026 estimate a slowdown in growth to 3.3%, which could indicate