MSCI Effects Not Over Yet, Market Shadowed by Rp 31 T Outflow at End of May
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The Indonesian stock market is overshadowed by the potential for a jumbo foreign fund outflow after Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) officially removed six Indonesian stocks from the MSCI Global Standard Index in its May 2026 review.
According to the official MSCI document, the six stocks removed from the MSCI Global Standard Index are PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk (AMMN), PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN), PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk (TPIA), PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN), and PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT).
CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia estimates that this MSCI rebalancing could trigger a passive outflow of up to US$1.8 billion, or approximately Rp31.49 trillion (assuming an exchange rate of Rp17,500).
“Similar to our previous projections but adjusted for the latest share prices and exchange rates, we estimate an outflow of US$1.8 billion from the MSCI Indonesia Standard Cap constituent stocks,” CGS wrote in its research, quoted on Wednesday (13/5/2026).
CGS states that the stocks most likely to be impacted by the outflow are BREN, DSSA, CUAN, AMMN, and TPIA.
As a result of these changes, Indonesia’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is expected to drop from 0.68% to 0.57%.
CGS predicts that the greatest selling pressure is likely to occur approaching the market close on 29 May 2026, when the MSCI rebalancing takes effect.
Nevertheless, CGS assesses that the potential for additional negative surprises from MSCI is diminishing because the market has anticipated these changes since MSCI released its latest free float data earlier this month.
MSCI has previously highlighted the issue of High Shareholding Concentration (HSC), or high stock ownership concentration, in several Indonesian issuers. This issue has drawn attention from global investors as it affects the assessment of free float and the accessibility of the Indonesian market.
Meanwhile, MSCI also removed 13 issuers from the small cap index.
The stocks exiting the MSCI Global Small Cap Index include:
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM)
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI)
PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk (BANK)
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE)
PT Dharma Satya Nusantara Tbk (DSNG)
PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk (SIDO)
PT Midi Utama Indonesia Tbk (MIDI)
PT Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA)
PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk (MSIN)
PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (TKIM)
PT Pacific Strategic Financial Tbk (APIC)
PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS)
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk (TAPG)
All these changes will take effect at the market close on 29 May 2026.