Money Circulation Potential During 1447 H Eid Al-Fitr Holiday Expected to Reach Rp 148 Trillion

The government has introduced various attractive economic stimulus measures for the public. As a result, many people are undertaking homecoming journeys to their hometowns to celebrate the victory of Eid Al-Fitr 1447 H.

For instance, the transport discount programme has allocated Rp 911.16 billion in budget for its implementation. Various transport modes have been given discounts of 30 per cent, including railways with a target of 1.2 million passengers, maritime transport with a target of 445,000 passengers, and port crossing discounts of 100 per cent of port service charges with a target of 945,000 vehicles and 2.4 million passengers, as well as air transport discounts of 17-18 per cent for economy class with a target of 3.3 million passengers. Meanwhile, toll road discounts of 30 per cent apply across 29 toll road sections in the Jabodetabek corridor, 10 trans-Java sections, 4 non-trans-Java sections, and 11 trans-Sumatra sections.

Additionally, there is stimulus in the form of holiday allowances (THR) budgeted at Rp 65 trillion, a 10 per cent increase from the previous year, covering 2.4 million central government civil servants, 4.3 million regional civil servants, military and police personnel, and 3.8 million retirees. The private sector THR for 26.5 million workers is estimated at Rp 124 trillion, to be paid seven days before the religious holiday. The government’s policy requiring ride-hailing application operators to provide holiday bonuses to online motorcycle taxi drivers and couriers adds Rp 220 billion to money circulation for 850,000 recipients. The government is also implementing a Work From Anywhere policy for five days around the Eid Al-Fitr holiday to reduce homecoming traffic congestion, applicable to both civil servants and private sector employees on 16-17 March 2026 (before Nyepi/Lebaran) and 25-27 March 2026 (after Lebaran).

These various stimulus measures and policies are driving sustained strong public interest in making Eid Al-Fitr 1447 H homecoming journeys this year, with significant potential for money circulation.

According to a Ministry of Transportation survey, population movement during the 1447 H Eid Al-Fitr homecoming or 2026 Lebaran is estimated at 143.9 million people or 50.6 per cent of Indonesia’s total population. This figure is a 1.75 per cent decrease compared to last year’s 146.4 million homecoming travellers. The 143.9 million figure equates to 35,975,000 households, assuming an average of four people per family. If each household brings Rp 4,125,000, a 10 per cent increase from 2025’s Rp 3.75 million, the potential money circulation would be Rp 4,125,000 × 35,975,000 households, totalling Rp 148.4 trillion, approximately 8 per cent higher than the previous year. However, this money circulation figure has potential to increase.

This calculation represents a moderate or lowest estimate. It has potential to reach Rp 161.9 trillion under the assumption that each household brings an average of Rp 4,500,000. This money will largely circulate in Central Java, East Java and West Java, with the remainder dispersed to Sumatra, Sulawesi, Kalimantan, Bali and other tourism destinations.

Money circulation will be substantial for homecoming needs such as tickets, toll charges and fuel, vehicle maintenance, and gifts for family in hometowns, followed by new clothes for family members and prayer equipment, holiday bonuses for relatives and family, hampers for neighbours and friends, various festive food and beverages to welcome guests, general household needs including staple food items such as meat, chicken and fruit, as well as Zakat Al-Fitr and charitable donations.

This means money circulation will reach nearly all business sectors selling various goods and services in the lead-up to and during Eid Al-Fitr 1447 H. While in their hometowns, money will also circulate at tourism destinations, with various micro and small enterprise traders benefiting from increased turnover, including food and beverage vendors, souvenir sellers, regional specialty food sellers and batik/traditional cloth vendors, as well as culinary centres in various regions.

To facilitate public access to cash, Bank Indonesia has provided Rp 185.6 trillion. Money circulation during the celebration and Eid Al-Fitr 1447 H holiday period, combined with household consumption surging an average 10-15 per cent, provides an opportunity to boost national economic growth in the first quarter of 2026, targeted at 5.4-5.5 per cent. Considering first-quarter economic momentum with the Nataru holiday at the beginning of January, followed by the 2577 Imlek celebrations with a potential money circulation of Rp 9 trillion, and Eid Al-Fitr 1447 H, the government remains optimistic that the first-quarter 2026 economic growth target is achievable.

Most importantly, the government must maintain public confidence by providing assurance and ensuring that fuel and gas supply remains adequate during and after Lebaran 2026, so people feel confident spending their money in their respective regions. This is important as the public also follows geopolitical developments in the Iran-US-Israel conflict, which could potentially disrupt fuel and gas supplies to the country.