Misused Intelligence Used by US President to Fuel War, the World Becomes the Victim

The world once became a victim due to the United States (US) President’s decision to support a war in the Middle East based on flawed intelligence information. This incident occurred in October 1973, when the Yom Kippur War broke out, triggering an embargo and a global surge in oil prices.

The story began five months before the war. A US State Department official had warned that oil could potentially be used as a tool of political pressure if a conflict arose in the Middle East. However, a month later, the US intelligence community refuted this.

“US intelligence concluded that it was highly unlikely that Arab countries would use an oil embargo as a potential source of influence against Western industrial nations,” stated US intelligence information, quoted by Shigeru Akita in Oil Crises of the 1970s and the Transformation of International Order (2023).

However, even though intelligence assessed the possibility of an embargo as very low, they still warned that escalating Arab-Israeli hostilities could trigger such a move. In reality, the embargo did occur when the war erupted, exceeding initial estimates.

In October 1973, war broke out between Egypt and Syria against Israel. Citing the US State Department website, President Richard Nixon (1969-1974) provided full military support to Israel, including the shipment of weapons and strategic aid, because he considered an embargo unlikely to happen.

However, Egypt and Syria did not want to lose and manoeuvred to garner support from Arab oil-producing countries through the OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries). Together, they cut oil production and imposed an embargo against the US and its allies with broader aims.

Not only to achieve victory in the war, but the embargo persisted until Israel withdrew and the rights of the Palestinian people were fulfilled. This was the point where intelligence predictions missed the mark, and the world felt the impact.

According to David S. Painter in Oil And Geopolitics: The Oil Crises Of The 1970s And The Cold War (2014), oil prices immediately skyrocketed from around US$3 per barrel to US$11.65 per barrel by the end of 1973. In the US, which was heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, long queues for fuel occurred. The same happened in Europe.

According to historian Laura Panza in The Conversation, the 1973 oil embargo had global repercussions. The worsening economic situation in the US forced the country to undertake various restructurings, including interest rate policies by the Fed, which subsequently affected the global economy more broadly.

“Central banks also faced difficult choices: raising interest rates could reduce inflation by slowing borrowing and spending. But higher interest rates also risked pushing the economy deeper into recession,” she said.

At this point, the government was forced to open emergency diplomatic channels. Unfortunately, although the Yom Kippur War lasted only about two weeks, the embargo persisted for another year. In March 1974, the embargo was officially lifted after a political agreement was reached, including a prisoner exchange between Syria and Israel.

Nevertheless, this decision serves as evidence that US choices based on flawed intelligence can have impacts far beyond one country. Because oil is not merely an economic commodity, but also a geopolitical tool that can shake the world.