Misguided Climate Mitigation Strategies Could Threaten Millions of Lives in Developing Countries

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA — Efforts to lighten the burden of climate change mitigation costs for developing countries could potentially threaten millions of lives. This finding was published in the journal The Lancet Global Health by a team of researchers from the University of Texas, Emory University, Princeton University, and collaborators from six countries.

The researchers modelled various scenarios to achieve the Paris Agreement target of limiting global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius. They also analysed the impacts on emissions, air quality, public health, and economic welfare in 178 countries until the end of the century.

The results show that climate action consistent with the two-degree Celsius target could prevent more than 13.5 million premature deaths from air pollution between 2020 and 2050, with the greatest benefits felt in low- and middle-income countries. However, this is where the dangerous paradox emerges.

In the “cheapest cost” approach, where emissions cuts are made in locations with the lowest cost burden, developing countries would bear the largest share of the decarbonisation load. In contrast, an equity-based approach that places more responsibility on advanced countries could potentially reduce nearly four million preventable premature deaths in developing countries, because significant reductions in fossil fuels would not occur in regions with the highest pollution levels.

The study’s lead author, Mark Budolfson, stated that these findings reveal a real dilemma between distributional justice in global climate policy and the goal of saving lives through improved air quality. “Shifting the mitigation burden from poor countries to rich ones can lead to unintended effects, namely a reduction in the number of lives that can be saved in developing countries, potentially reaching millions,” said the University of Texas philosophy and geography lecturer, as quoted from Phys.org on Thursday (19/3/2026).

To escape this dilemma, the researchers tested an alternative scenario that combines equity principles with direct air quality interventions. In this “Equity + Air Quality” scenario, developing countries use cost savings from reduced mitigation obligations to invest in pollution control technologies, such as emission filters on power plant chimneys targeting soot particles, sulphur dioxide, and other harmful pollutants.