Ministry of Transport predicts two dates will see congestion during Lebaran homecoming travel in 2026

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Minister of Transport Dudy Purwagandhi predicts that congestion during Lebaran 1447 Hijriah/2026 will peak on 16 March (Monday) and 18 March (Wednesday), based on government simulations. President Prabowo Subianto has approved a proposal for a work-from-anywhere (WFA) policy to help reduce Mudik congestion. The government plans to implement WFA for five days during the mudik and Lebaran return period to spread mobility and avoid crowding on specific dates. For the return flow, WFA is proposed to apply on 25–27 March after the Idul Fitri holidays.

Dudy said the policy is important because the number of vehicles used by homebound travellers is expected to be very large. He noted that private vehicles such as cars and motorcycles, as well as buses, remain the dominant modes of transport during the Lebaran mudik period. According to the Ministry of Transport’s simulations, national movement on 16 March is projected to reach about 21.2 million people. On 18 March, it is projected to be higher at around 22 million, making it one of the peaks of the Lebaran Mudik. With the WFA policy, the government aims to reduce movement on 16 March to around 18–18.9 million people. Movement is expected to start increasing from Friday, 13 March 2026. Initially, movement on that date was projected at about 4.4 million journeys, but after WFA is implemented, movement is expected to rise to around eight to nearly nine million journeys — almost double the initial projection. Overall, Lebaran passenger movement for 2026 is forecast to fall by about 1.7 percent compared with the previous year, from 146.4 million to around 143.9 million. The data comes from a government survey conducted before Lebaran transport operations to map population mobility and prepare national transport infrastructure. The survey was conducted by the Ministry of Transport in cooperation with the Bandung Institute of Technology’s Institute for Research and Industry Affiliates, Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia), and the Ministry of Communications and Digitalisation of the Republic of Indonesia.