Ministry of Religion Predicts 2026 Eid al-Fitr Will Fall on Different Dates Among Muslim Communities

The Director of Islamic Affairs at the Ministry of Religion, Arsad Hidayat, has predicted that 1 Syawal 1447 Hijriah, or Eid al-Fitr 2026, will likely fall on different dates amongst Muslim communities, particularly between the government’s determination and that of Muhammadiyah.

The Muhammadiyah Central Board has set 1 Syawal 1447 Hijriah to fall on Friday, 20 March 2026. However, according to government calculations, Arsad explained that the position of the new moon on that date does not yet meet the crescent visibility criteria established by MABIMS member states—Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.

Under MABIMS standards, the crescent must have a minimum altitude of 3 degrees and an elongation of 6.4 degrees to be designated as 1 Syawal. “According to the MABIMS visibility criteria, the elongation must be a minimum of 6.4 degrees. So based on MABIMS crescent visibility criteria, it would not yet be possible to observe it,” Arsad stated.

Nevertheless, Arsad emphasised that the final determination of Eid al-Fitr 2026 will await the results of the isbat session to be held by the Ministry of Religion on 19 March 2026. “The final decision will await the results of the isbat session which will be conducted on 19 March 2026,” he said.

Furthermore, Thomas Djamaluddin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency’s (BRIN) Space Research Centre, forecasts that 1 Syawal 1447 Hijriah will likely differ between the government and Muhammadiyah.

Muhammadiyah, which adheres to the Global Single Islamic Calendar (KHGT), is certain to set 1 Syawal 1447 Hijriah to fall on Friday, 20 March 2026. However, based on crescent calculation and observation standards, the government, which follows MABIMS criteria, determined that at sunset on 19 March 2026 in Southeast Asian territories, the crescent’s position would not meet MABIMS criteria. “Consequently, 1 Syawal will fall on 21 March 2026,” he stated.