Middle East War Brings New Catastrophe: 45 Million People at Risk of Starvation
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The World Food Programme (WFP) warns that the escalation of conflict in the Middle East could push the number of people worldwide experiencing acute hunger to a record level in 2026. If the conflict continues and disrupts the global economy, its impacts are expected to extend far beyond the conflict zone.
The WFP’s latest analysis estimates that nearly an additional 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse if the conflict does not end by mid-year and oil prices remain above US$100 per barrel. This figure would add to the 318 million people currently facing food insecurity around the world.
For comparison, when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022 and triggered a global cost-of-living crisis, the number of people experiencing hunger reached a record 349 million. The WFP assesses that the world now risks facing a similar situation in the coming months if the Middle East conflict continues to escalate.
The rapid surge in food prices followed by a slow decline in 2022 caused vulnerable families to lose access to staple foods in a short time. A similar situation is feared to recur, especially since energy and food markets are closely interconnected.
Although the current conflict is occurring in a global energy hub rather than a food basket, its impact is considered equivalent due to the strong linkage between energy prices and food prices. Rising energy costs can drive food inflation and worsen access to basic needs for communities.
The WFP warns that many families who can currently meet their daily food needs could soon lose that ability. If the conflict persists, the global shock will grow larger, and the most vulnerable groups will be the most affected.
WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau emphasised that without an adequate humanitarian response, this situation could turn into a disaster for millions of people. He stated that families already struggling to meet food needs will face the heaviest pressure.
“If this conflict continues, its impact will shake the entire world, and families who cannot even afford the next meal will be the most affected. Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, this situation could become a disaster for millions of people already on the brink of crisis,” Skau said, quoted from the WFP’s official website on Saturday (21/3/2026).
Disruptions to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and increased risks in the Red Sea have driven up energy, fuel, and fertiliser costs. This condition extends the hunger impact beyond the Middle East through a domino effect on global supply chains.
According to the WFP’s analysis, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable regions due to their high dependence on food and energy imports. The number of people at food insecurity risk is estimated to increase by 21% in West and Central Africa, 17% in East and Southern Africa, and 24% in Asia.
In Sudan, around 80% of wheat needs still rely on imports, so price increases will directly pressure the population. Meanwhile, in Somalia, prices of key commodities have surged by at least 20% since the conflict began, worsening the situation amid severe drought.
This crisis is also occurring as WFP funding faces significant shortfalls, forcing the organisation to prioritise aid strictly in various regions. Without additional resources, the rise in the number of people at food insecurity risk could trigger a humanitarian disaster in countries already on the verge of famine.
On the other hand, the conflict also disrupts global supply chains due to obstacles in major maritime routes. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea create rare dual congestion in the world’s two most vital trade corridors.
These disruptions trigger surges in shipping costs and potential new global inflation, including shortages of fertiliser crucial for the 2026 planting season. This is particularly concerning for developing countries that rely on imports.
According to another report, the WFP is currently providing aid to tens of thousands of families affected by the conflict in the Middle East. The organisation is also deploying a major emergency response to keep aid distribution running amid increasingly complex conditions.
In Lebanon, food aid and emergency supplies have been distributed to displaced families just hours after the first airstrikes occurred. Cash assistance programmes are also being implemented to help meet urgent needs while reducing pressure on shelters.
Meanwhile, in Syria and Iran, the WFP continues to expand aid to refugees and vulnerable groups affected by the conflict. However, the organisation emphasises that sustained support is urgently needed to ensure food aid reaches those who need it most amid the ongoing crisis.