Middle East Tensions Rise, Gold Price Projected to Reach Rp3.4 Million
JAKARTA — Tensions in the Middle East are triggering widespread market concern. Following US and Israeli strikes on various targets in Iran, including Tehran, Iran has retaliated with missile attacks on Israeli territory and American military facilities in the region. Iranian state media has even reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes.
Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi believes this escalation could be prolonged and have direct consequences for global financial markets, including gold prices and the rupiah exchange rate.
“This fairly massive attack indicates that tensions will intensify. Iran has already retaliated against Israel and American bases in the Middle East. It is likely that this conflict will continue to flare up, both in the short and medium term,” said Ibrahim on Sunday (1 March 2026).
According to him, this situation represents a positive sentiment driver for global gold prices. Investors tend to seek safe assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.
“This will have a positive impact on global gold prices. In tomorrow morning’s trading, a gap-up is very likely. It could well touch $5,440 or even $5,500 in the near term,” he said.
The rise in global gold, Ibrahim continued, is likely to be accompanied by rupiah weakness. The combination of both will push domestic gold bar prices higher.
“If world gold rises and the rupiah weakens sharply, domestic precious metal prices could return to the range of Rp3,300,000 to Rp3,400,000 per gramme,” he said.
Gold price surges are typically followed by increased public purchasing interest, both for hedging and short-term investment. However, Ibrahim cautioned citizens to remain rational.
According to him, high volatility can trigger rapid price movements, whether up or down. “The public needs to be careful. Don’t simply follow temporary sentiment, but pay attention to the risks,” he said.
On the other hand, rupiah weakness could put downward pressure on imported goods and raw material prices for industry. If the conflict widens and persists, the impact could extend to inflation and household purchasing power.
Market participants are now monitoring the follow-up response from both sides. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced the beginning of a major offensive operation in response to the strikes. This situation is causing global markets to move erratically.
For the public, external shocks of this kind are not merely a geopolitical matter, but also affect commodity prices and household economic stability. The government and monetary authorities are expected to maintain stability so that spillover effects can be minimised.