Middle East Increasingly Divided: Why is Iran Turning to Russia and China?

The joint attack by Israel and the United States on Iran on 28 February has sparked various analyses regarding the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East region. This conflict reaffirms Iran’s position as the main rival to those two countries since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Amidst this tension, Iran is instead forging closer relations with Russia and China, two global powers often viewed as counterweights to US influence.

In the conflict that occurred during Ramadan, Iran is said to have received support from both countries, although Beijing has stated a neutral stance. Meanwhile, Gulf states neighbouring Iran tend not to provide direct support.

Professor Emeritus at Université Catholique in France, Bichara Khader, states that the roots of Iran’s closeness to Russia and China began with its nuclear programme in the early 1990s, which lacked funding and minimal support from the West.

“At that time, Iran turned to China, which began to greatly need Iran’s oil and gas, and especially Russia, which was happy to take over the role of Western countries in a country whose strategic centrality is undoubtedly,” he said.

Cooperation with Russia resulted in the construction of the first Bushehr Power Plant unit, with a contract signed in 1999. Meanwhile, cooperation with China began earlier, in 1990, particularly in the field of nuclear fuel cycle technology transfer.

This collaboration provoked a strong reaction from the United States, which then imposed sanctions on companies investing in Iran’s energy sector during the 1995-1996 period. This policy not only strengthened anti-American sentiment in Iran but also impacted the economic interests of European countries.

At that time, Iran began to develop as a promising market for European energy companies. However, the US sanctions, which were extraterritorial in nature, forced European countries to comply with a policy they did not choose, even when it conflicted with their own economic interests.

On the other hand, Israel has increased pressure on Iran by criticising its nuclear programme and stating its readiness to destroy the country’s nuclear facilities. Israel views Iran as an existential threat, although Iran itself is considered to have never engaged in direct confrontation with Israel.

Bichara Khader assesses that Iran’s nuclear issue has become a primary concern for the United States and Israel, as well as Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. For Riyadh, Iran’s mastery of nuclear technology has the potential to trigger regional instability and accelerate nuclear weapons proliferation.

This situation also explains the normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in recent years. This agreement occurred through the initiative of the Donald Trump administration and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, which encouraged the formation of a new alliance in the region.

These developments show that the conflict in the Middle East is not only influenced by military factors but also by geopolitical, energy, and evolving strategic alliance interests.