Middle East Geopolitics Heats Up, Gold Prices Poised for Correction Next Week
JAKARTA - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East stemming from the escalation of conflict between Israel, the United States (US), and Iran continue to overshadow global gold price movements. Although it has held at high levels for a time, gold prices are projected to potentially correct next week.
Citing Bloomberg, global gold prices in trading on Friday (27/3/2026) in New York strengthened to $4,949.09 per troy ounce at 16:59 local time. This position reflects an increase of around 2.70 per cent compared to the previous day.
Nevertheless, on a monthly basis, gold prices are still under pressure. Throughout March 2026, gold prices have fallen 15 per cent.
The price pressure once caused gold to drop to around 19 per cent from the highest closing level in January until the end of trading on Thursday (26/3/2026). This decline approaches the 20 per cent threshold, which technically is often associated with the start of a bearish market phase.
However, on Friday (27/3/2026), buying interest re-emerged. Investors entered the market and pushed gold prices up by around 3 per cent.
“If global gold prices correct deeply, on Monday it is likely to be at $4,363 per troy ounce. Then what about the precious metal? It would be Rp 2,815 if it falls,” said Ibrahim to reporters on Sunday (29/3/2026).
In deeper pressure, the decline in global gold prices over a week could continue to $4,138 per troy ounce. This condition is seen as capable of dragging down precious metal prices in the domestic market.
“Then in one week, it is likely to drop to $4,138, remember 4,138 dollars per troy ounce,” he explained.
Meanwhile, the second resistance level is at $4,912 per troy ounce. Nevertheless, an increase towards the psychological level of $5,000 per troy ounce is estimated not to be reached next week.
For the domestic market, gold prices are projected to move to Rp 2.92 million per gram in a continued strengthening scenario. The Rp 3 million per gram level is still considered difficult to breach in the near term, and is only likely to be achieved next week, around 6-7 April 2026.
“The precious metal would be at Rp 2.92 million per gram. So next week, the precious metal is also unlikely to touch the Rp 3 million level. That will happen the following week, namely on the 6-7th,” Ibrahim concluded.
Amid this short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. Ibrahim emphasised that the main factors driving gold prices still come from global geopolitical dynamics, including the conflict in the Middle East, as well as currency exchange rate movements and energy prices.